By Reese Ewing and Roberto Samora

SAO PAULO, April 18 (Reuters) – Brazilian corn imports have dropped back after surging to their highest levels in a decade recently, but the country could return to buying soon, with U.S. corn potentially on the menu, if a dry spell hitting the local winter crop persists.

Analysts and livestock industry leaders expect Brazil’s

second and larger winter corn crop that begins harvesting around mid-year to boost supplies, but these forecasts have not considered that drought may cause significant crop losses.

Meteorologist Marcos Antonio dos Santos at weather service Somar is forecasting essentially that, in his latest outlook for main center-west grain belt known as the Cerrado and the Matopiba region.

“I don’t like to bear bad news but it should be said: It’s going to stress the winter corn crop a lot,” Santos said, adding that high temperatures will intensify and isolated showers willbecome sparser over the next 10 days, with no relief in sight.

Many corn fields are not yet in critical condition in the main growing regions, even though they are under stress.

Laercio Claus, agronomist at the DGF farming group in north central Mato Grosso, said some of his 2,300 hectare (5,680 acre) winter corn crop was stressed by the dry weather.

“We will definitely need more rain to finish the crop, which is forming ears and kernels,” Claus said, adding that the farm’s corn goes to feed the local pork and poultry.

Corn producers have shied away from fresh forward sales of the maturing crop due to their uncertainty about the output of harvest.

“Prices are high, but there are no deals. Nobody is confident about how much they will actually harvest,” said Arlindo Cancian, president of the farm association in Canarana, on the grain-rich eastern slope of Mato Grosso state.

U.S. CORN

The bulk of the 500,000 tonnes of corn that will arrive at Brazilian ports in the coming two months was originated in Argentina and Paraguay, which enjoy a tariff-free grain trade with Brazil under the Mercosur customs agreement.

The Agriculture Ministry recently requested the suspension of a 10-percent common import tariff applied to non-Mercosur grain imports to ease price pressures on food and animal feeds.

Local analyst INTL FCStone said such a move would make U.S. corn competitive, especially those in the northeast that are close to the U.S. Gulf region and far from Argentina.

“The Northeast doesn’t have enough corn and the price for corn (locally) is well above normal,” Ana Luiza Lodi at FCStone said, adding that a 60-kg bag is currently quoted at 54 reais ($260/tonne), up 56 percent from a year ago in the region.

Including freight costs, U.S. corn could reach Northeast Brazil at roughly $190 a tonne if the import tariff were suspended, she said. The government’s foreign trade council,Camex,is due to consider the tariff reduction on Tuesday.

(Writing by Reese Ewing; Editing by Frances Kerry)

(( reese.ewing@thomsonreuters.com; +5511 5644 7721; Reuters Messaging: reese.ewing.thomsonreuters@thomsonreuters.net) )