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Soybeans extend rally on export figures, USDA reports eyed (RT)

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  • Soybeans set for weekly gains of almost 1.5 pct
  • USDA expected to raise forecasts for soybeans and corn
  • Wheat little changed for the week

SYDNEY, Aug 12 (Reuters) – U.S. soybeans rose on Friday as strong export demand pushed the oilseed towards a weekly gain of nearly 1.5 percent.

Corn was unchanged, set to finish the week down about 1 percent. Wheat was set to close the week nearly flat.

The most active soybean futures on the Chicago Board Of Trade Sv1 rose 0.36 percent to $9.87-1/2 a bushel after closing up 0.18 percent on Thursday.

Soybeans have posted gains in four of the last five sessions, pushing the oilseed up nearly 1.5 percent for the week and recouping some of the nearly 3 percent loss from last week.

Soybeans continue to rally on the recent strong demand for U.S. exports, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reporting overseas sales totalling more than 3 million tonnes in the week to Aug. 4, topping analysts’ expectations.

While soybeans continues to draw support from the exports, market direction will depend on the outcome of the USDA supply and demand report later in the session, analysts said.

“China keeps on taking U.S. soybeans, that is why prices are moving upwards,” said Phin Ziebell, an agribusiness economist at National Australia Bank.

Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect the government to raise its soybean yield estimates, but increased export demand for soybeans could prompt the USDA to trim its ending stocks forecasts.

The most active corn futures Cv1 was unchanged at $3.31-3/4 a bushel after closing down 0.4 percent on Thursday.

Corn is down nearly 1 percent for the week, the second consecutive weekly fall after losing more than 2 percent last week.

The USDA is expected to raise its estimate for corn yields.

The most active wheat futures Wv1 was unchanged at $4.16-1/4 a bushel after closing down 1.3 percent on Thursday.

Wheat is little changed for the week after posting gains of more than 2 percent last week.

USDA reported weekly export sales of U.S. wheat above 600,000 tonnes, a five-week high that topped trade expectations.

Wheat traders will be watching on Friday for revisions to the USDA’s world outlook in light of poor harvests in western Europe and bumper crops in the Black Sea region.

Soybean prices rise, but weather forecasts curb gains (RT)

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SYDNEY, Aug 11 (Reuters) – U.S. soybeans edged higher on Thursday, but gains were curbed as forecasts for favourable weather across the U.S. Midwest stoked the outlook for supply.

Corn inched up, while wheat extended two-day gains to nearly 1.5 percent.

The most active soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade Sv1 rose 0.46 percent to $9.86-3/4 a bushel, having closed down 0.58 percent on Wednesday.

But analysts said gains may prove short-lived as rains are expected across the largest growing region in the United States for the rest of the week, and also due to preparations for a widely watched U.S. government report on Friday.

“We expect there was also some pressure from the usual reshuffling as investors unwind positions in the lead up to the (U.S. Department of Agriculture) report,” said Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy, Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Soybeans had risen for five consecutive session prior to Wednesday, drawing support from strong export demand for U.S. supplies.

The USDA through its daily reporting system confirmed sales of U.S. soybeans in each of the previous 10 trading sessions, although no new soy sales were reported on Wednesday.

The most active corn futures Cv1 rose 0.23 percent to $3.33-3/4 a bushel, having gained 0.15 percent in the previous session.

Most analysts surveyed by Reuters expect the USDA to raise its forecast of the U.S. 2016/17 corn yield from its current figure of 168.0 bushels per acre.

The most active wheat futures Wv1 climbed 0.24 percent to $4.22-3/4 a bushel, having closed up 1.1 percent on Wednesday.

Brazil cuts winter corn crop forecast by 1.1 percent (RT)

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SAO PAULO, Aug 9 (Reuters) – Brazil’s government cut its 2016 winter corn crop forecast by 1.1 percent to 42.59 million tonnes on Tuesday from 43.05 million tonnes in July as evidence of drought continues to weigh on the final harvest numbers.

In its 11th forecast of the season, crop supply agency Conab said it expected Brazil’s total corn output, including the summer harvest, to be 68.48 million tonnes, down from July’s 69.14 million and last year’s 84.67 million. Exports of corn this year will fall to 20 million tonnes from 30.17 million last year, it said.

Conab raised its forecast for area planted for winter corn, the bigger of the two crops, to 10.53 million hectares (26 million acres) from 10.13 million hectares in July.

But irregular rainfall in the main winter corn-producing regions of the center-west grain belt continues to push yield numbers lower. Productivity fell to 4.05 tonnes per hectare from 4.17 in July’s estimate, Conab said.

Brazil has been importing corn from Argentina and Paraguay to make up for the shortfall in output and supply feed to its struggling pork and poultry industries.

Brazil’s restrictions on certain genetically modified varieties of corn have held up imports from the United States. Agriculture Minister Blairo Maggi said in recent days, however, that he was working on a solution to secure clearance for North American corn to try to bring down stubbornly high local prices.

Russian wheat prices up on concerns over Western Europe crop (RT)

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MOSCOW, Aug 8 (Reuters) – Russian wheat export prices rose last week on concerns over the weather-hit harvest in the Western Europe, Russia’s main rival to supply North Africa and the Middle East, analysts said on Monday.

Russia’s Agriculture Ministry expects the country to harvest the largest grain crop in its post-Soviet history of up to 110 million tonnes, of which 57.9 million tonnes have already been threshed.

Black Sea prices for Russian wheat with 12.5-percent protein content and supply in August were $166 a tonne on a free-on-board (FOB) basis at the end of last week, up $2 from a week earlier, Russian agricultural consultancy IKAR said in a note. IKARMENU

SovEcon, another Moscow-based consultancy, quoted FOB wheat prices in the Black Sea area at $167 per tonne, up $2.5 from a week earlier.

The country exported 2.19 million tonnes of grains, including 1.68 million tonnes of wheat and 465,000 tonnes of barley, between July 1 and August 3, the agriculture ministry said. The pace of grain exports was down 4.4 percent, year on year.

Grain exports will rise significantly in August from July, IKAR said. Russia was the world’s second-largest wheat exporter after the European Union in the 2015/16 marketing season, which ended on June 30.

SovEcon plans to release its crop forecast update on Aug. 11. A month ago, it expected Russia’s 2016 grain harvest at 109 million tonnes, including 66.1 million tonnes of wheat.

The Stavropol region, one of Russia’s main grain producing southern regions, has finished harvesting with a record grain crop of 9.2 million tonnes before drying and cleaning, up 1 million tonnes from a year ago.

Domestic prices for third-class wheat rose last week for the first time in the 2016/17 marketing season, which started on July 1, on higher demand in export-focused regions.

Domestic prices added 25 roubles from the week earlier and reached 9,575 roubles ($147) a tonne in the European part of Russia on an ex-works basis, according to SovEcon. Ex-works supply does not include delivery costs. GRAIN/RU

SovEcon also said FOB Black Sea export prices for sunflower oil were down on the back of weak global prices and good harvest prospects in Ukraine and Russia.

SovEcon has upgraded its forecast for Russia’s 2016 sunseed crop to a historically record level of 10.1 million tonnes compared with the previously expected 9.3 million tonnes.

 

U.S. corn ratings seen lower on dry conditions; soy steady (RT)

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CHICAGO, Aug 8 (Reuters) – The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will likely show decreased condition ratings for the U.S. corn crop, mostly due to seasonal factors and as some portions of the Midwestern growing region were suffering from dry conditions, a Reuters poll of 10 analysts showed on Monday.

Soybean crop ratings, on average, were expected to be unchanged while the spring wheat harvest likely advanced at a normal rate, the analysts said.

USDA in its weekly crop progress and conditions report due at 3 p.m. CDT (2000 GMT) is expected to estimate corn ratings at 75 percent good to excellent, down one percentage point from a week ago, according to analysts’ average estimates. US/CORUS/SOY

Soybean ratings were seen at 72 percent good to excellent, steady after posting a one-percentage-point rise in the previous week.

Crop conditions for corn typically decline at this time of year as the earliest-planted fields reach maturity. Condition ratings for both corn and soybeans are historically high, and it was rare for conditions to improve during some of the hottest days of the summer, the analysts said.

The spring wheat harvest was estimated at 28 percent complete, up from 10 percent last week. The harvest also was 28 percent finished during the same week in 2015. US/WHE

All figures below in percent:

Category Average Range Prior week
Corn condition * 75 74-76 76
Soybean condition * 72 70-73 72
Spring wheat harvest 28 21-37 10
* Good/excellent

France sees wheat yields at 30-year low on weather toll (RT)

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  • Farm ministry revises down soft wheat crop to 29.1 mln T
  • Sees yield plunging to 5.57 t/ha after poor crop weather
  • Cuts barley, rapeseed estimates, sees stable maize crop
  • FranceAgriMer points to contrasting wheat quality

By Gus Trompiz

PARIS, Aug 5 (Reuters) – France’s farm ministry cut its yield estimate for this year’s soft wheat harvest to a 30-year low on Friday, confirming market concerns that adverse spring weather has ravaged crops in the European Union’s biggest grain grower.

The ministry lowered its forecast of the average soft wheat yield to 5.57 tonnes per hectare (t/ha), from 7.07 t/ha last month. This would be 30 percent below last year’s level and the weakest yield since 1986 when drought hit the harvest, it said.

The plunge in yields led the ministry to reduce its soft wheat production estimate to 29.1 million tonnes from 36.95 million forecast last month, now down 29 percent on last year’s record 40.9 million tonnes and the lowest level since 2003.

This was within the range of current market estimates putting the crop between 28 and 30 million tonnes.

“Winter crops will see a historic drop in production this year due to the drop in yields,” the ministry said in a crop report. “The soft wheat harvest has been particularly impacted by the poor weather conditions.”

Like other observers, it pointed to a combination of torrential rain, unusually low sunshine and widespread plant disease that hurt crops during critical flowering and grain-filling stages.

The Ile-de-France region around Paris was expected to see yields fall 40 percent below the average of the previous five years. The Hauts-de-France region in the far north would see a 38 percent drop and Centre-Val-de-Loire a 31 percent decline, the ministry estimated.

Weekly crop data from farm agency FranceAgriMer on Friday showed another decline in the condition of soft wheat crops last week as harvesting passed the midway point.

In a separate harvest update, FranceAgriMer also pointed to unusually contrasting quality readings, a crucial factor for export markets, which would require careful sorting of grain.

It stressed erratic and generally low specific weights, one measure of wheat quality, without giving figures, while protein content was relatively high, with some northerly zones seeing levels above 12 percent.

Hagberg falling numbers, another quality measure of proved a headache for France after a rain-soaked harvest two years ago, were satisfactory so far, it said.

The ministry also cut its harvest outlook for barley, putting production at 10.2 million tonnes, down from 11.7 million estimated last month and 21 percent below 2015 output.

It also lowered its estimate of the rapeseed harvest to 4.5 million tonnes, from 4.8 million a month ago, now 15 percent below last year’s crop.

FranceAgriMer, which gave the same soft wheat production figure as the farm ministry, put the rapeseed crop slightly higher at 4.7 million tonnes.

However, conditions for maize and sunflower crops that are harvested later in the year were more favourable for now, the ministry said.

In its first estimate for this year’s grain maize harvest, it projected production at 13.5 million tonnes, stable compared with last year’s crop as an expected recovery in yields after last year’s drought-affected harvest offset a smaller area.

Corn hits 7-year low, despite good export demand (Ag)

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19:49 GMT, Thursday, 4th Aug 2016, by William Clarke

Soybean futures kept their heads above water, just about, thanks to good US exports, but heavy world supplies weighed on corn futures, which seven-year lows, under pressure from the heavy US crop prospects.

The US Department of Agriculture announced the sale of 252,000 tonnes of soybeans to China, and 129,000 tonnes of corn to unknown destinations.

“Another lovely round of daily reporting,” said Kim Rugel at Benson Quinn Commodities, noting “thoughts of strong export demand due to multi-year low prices offering support”.

Exports beat expectations

US soybean export sales came in at 542,200 tonnes for the current marketing year, compared to analyst forecasts of 300,000 to 600,000 tonnes.

This brings in total soybean commitments for 2015-16 at 107.3% of the USDA’s forecast.

And sales for the new marketing year were toward the top end of expectations, at 1.13m tonnes, with analyst expectations ranging between 800,000 and 1.20m tonnes.

This was the biggest new crop sale so far this year.

New crop soybean product sales also beat expectations, with 19,000 tonnes of soyoil, and 140,500 tonnes of soymeal, booked for export.

Range bound trade

But despite the good export demand, soybean markets are struggling to rally, with the risk of rising soybean yields.

Richard Feltes, at RJ O’Brien, asked “are markets settling into a range trade ahead of crop report or merely taking a breather before going lower?”

“With tight cash markets, positive Aug soybean seasonal and the torrid pace of soybean export sales-we lean toward more range trade,” Mr Feltes.

But he warned that “confirmation of another record high US soy yield would certainly inflict more pain on the remaining soybean managed fund longs”.

November soybean futures finished unchanged on the day, at 9.56 ѕ a bushel.

Strong export sales

“Corn export sales were good this week,” said Joe Lardy, at CHS Hedging.

2015-16 sales came in at 331,1000 tonnes, toward the low end of expectations, but new crop corn sales were a hefty 896,300 tonnes, ahead of analyst expectations of 500,000 to 700,000 tonnes.

This is the biggest new crop sale of so far this year.

Beneficial rain

But the market remains under heavy pressure, from US crop prospects.

“The market is most focused on rainfall in the eastern Corn Belt,” said Darrell Holaday, at Country Futures.

“Rain in the next 2-4 days would be beneficial to a few dry areas in those states and would really finish much of the state that is in very good condition,” Mr Holaday said.

“There is plenty of rain in the forecast for the Plains and the central and western Midwest,” he added.

Good corn prospects

“Prospects in Midwest corn are favourable, a result of wet summer weather,” said forecaster Gail Martell, also noting the good condition of corn, as revealed in the latest set of USDA crop ratings.

“Corn pollination has reached 91% complete,” Ms Martell said. “This points to a very favourable crop in the making.”

“The corn yield outlook was boosted by recurring strong showers in July,” she noted, with “85% of the Midwest receiving above average rainfall”.

December corn futures finished down 1.3%, at $3.31 a bushel, the lowest finish for the second-month contract since 2009.

Wheat sales miss expectations

Wheat futures fell, under pressure from heavy world supplies and some disappointing US exports sales.

Wheat export sales came in below expectations, at 326,500 tonnes, where analysts projected sales of 350,000-650,000 tonnes.

September Chicago wheat futures finished down 1.7%, at $4.03 ј a bushel.

Brazilian real rallies…

Arabica and sugar futures rallied late in the session, thanks to a rally in currency of Brazil, the top exporter of both commodities.

The Brazilian real was up 0.9% against the greenback in afternoon trading, at 3.3065 to a dollar.

Aside from two sessions in late June, this is the strongest the real has been since July 2015.

The strength in the real was driven by the news that the Bank of England cut its interest rates, for the first time in seven years, and would extend quantitative easing.

…lending support to arabica and sugar

The prospect of a wave of looser monetary policy across the developed world weighed on bond yields there.

The move sent speculators flooding into higher-yield environments such as Brazil.

The strength in the real was supportive for coffee and sugar futures, as it reduces real-denominated returns for Brazilian growers, discouraging production and exports.

September arabica KCc1 settled up 1.2%, at 142.10 cents a pound.

October raw sugar futures settled up 3.5%, at 19.7 cents a pound.

Technical buying

Cotton futures surged on technical buying, helped by strong US export sales.

The USDA announced net cotton sales of 226,700 bales of cotton for the 2016-2017 marketing year.

December cotton futures broke out of their previous trading range, triggering fund buying.

The December contract settled up 2.1%, at 75.82 cents a pound, its highest level since June 2014.

Soybeans rise for a second session on demand for U.S. supplies

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  • Soybean rally capped by favourable weather outlook
  • Corn pressured by bumper supply forecasts
  • Wheat firms for second straight session

By Colin Packham

SYDNEY, Aug 4 (Reuters) – U.S. soybeans rose for a second session on Thursday, drawing support from international demand for U.S. supplies, though favourable weather forecasts for key producing regions capped the rally.

Corn was little changed, under pressure from expectations of silo-bursting supplies, while wheat rose for a second session.

The most active soybean futures on the Chicago Board Of Trade Sv1 rose 0.31 percent to $9.58-1/2 a bushel, having firmed 0.3 percent on Wednesday.

“The market will be tallying the net impact of strong U.S. export demand against a potential bumper U.S. harvest,” said Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy, Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Exporters on Wednesday reported sales of 441,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery in the 2016/17 marketing year, which begins on Sept. 1, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.

There were 256,000 tonnes of soybeans sold to reportedly unknown destinations with 66,000 tonnes for delivery in the 2015/16 marketing year and 190,200 tonnes for delivery in 2016/17, according to the USDA.

It was the sixth consecutive business day on which the agency confirmed soybean sales, with volumes to China and unknown destinations totalling more than 2 million tonnes over that period.

While demand appears strong for U.S. crops, with favourable weather expected across the Midwest, forecasters are increasingly confident of bumper U.S. supplies.

The most active corn futures Cv1 rose 0.1 percent to $3.35-1/4 a bushel, having gained 0.3 percent in the previous session.

The most active wheat futures Wv1 rose 0.3 percent to $4.11-1/2 a bushel, having closed up 2.2 percent on Wednesday.

Corn is under pressure from the weather outlook, but also drew support from news the Brazilian government is working to adjust its regulations on imports of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) to allow more corn imports from the United States.

Corn futures sharply pare losses on export hopes…

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20:43 GMT, Tuesday, 2nd Aug 2016, by William Clarke (Agrimoney.com)

Corn futures tumbled to six-year lows – only to recover on the news that the Brazilian government is working to open up its livestock feed sector to genetically modified corn from the US.

Corn had a weak start to the session, after weekly US Department of Agriculture overnight reported better-than-expected US crop ratings.

The USDA saw corn condition at 76% good or excellent, despite the hot weather, where markets were expecting at 1 point drop in condition.

And the development of corn is well advanced, having got through the crucial month of July with no severe heat damage, with 91% of corn in the silking stage.

Favourable crop outlook.

Meteorologist Gail Martell said the good crop condition, and a benign weather outlook “points to a favourable corn harvest in the making.

“Summer growing conditions in corn have been mostly favourable, though not ideal.

“Rainfall has been ample, promoting strong growth and development in corn,” she said, although some periods of heat have “proved detrimental”.

But the warm June temperatures, along with ample rainfall, “has spurred corn development,” Ms Martell said.

The prospect of ample US supply pushed December corn futures to session lows of just $3.29 a bushel, the lowest level for second-month futures since late 2009, but prices pared losses later in the session.

Brazilian demand

Rich Nelson, at the US broker Allendale, ascribed the change in mood to “a new story out there”.

This was an announcement by the Brazilian government that it was working to allow the import of more varieties of genetically modified US corn, for use in the country’s livestock industry.

Shipping corn to Brazil, the world’s second ranked corn exporter, during the middle of its’ second crop, or safrinha, harvest might seem like sending coals to Newcastle.

But a crisis in corn supplies is developing in Brazil’s southern livestock regions, sending prices soaring.

A long period during which the currency was very weak, making Brazilian corn highly competitive in international markets, lead to heavy exports.

Brazilian stocks were depleted, and much of the current crop was forward sold.

Now, with estimates of the safrinha crop ever declining, the corn supply is getting very tight.

Running out of corn

Last week the analyst Dr Michael Cordonnier reported that “livestock producers are very concerned that the corn situation in Brazil is so tight that the country could essentially run out of corn again before the 2017 safrinha corn harvest gets underway next June”.

“Even though the corn situation is expected to get very tight in Brazil, the country is still exporting corn, but all the corn now being exported is to fulfil old contracts from months ago,” Dr Cordonneir said.

“Once these contracts are fulfilled, no new export contracts are expected for the foreseeable future because domestic corn prices in Brazil are expected to be much higher than the international price.”

Domestic demand

“They do have a need for corn domestically,” Mr Nelson told Agrimoney,.”The country’s exporters oversold.”

He noted ideas that export sales could be made within the next few week.

But he pointed out that it was “interesting that they’re making such a move on a government basis now,” rather than ahead of the safrinha crop, when supplies were tighter.

December corn futures bounced back from the session lows, to finish the day unchanged, at $3.34 a bushel.

Export prospects limit losses

Soybean futures couldn’t make any such recovery, although they did trim losses on good export potential.

Soybeans were rated 72% good or excellent in the USDA report.

This is actually a 1 point increase from last week, where a 1 point decline was expected.

Still, at least there was a touch of export demand, as the USDA announced a 252,000 tonnes ale of soybeans to China, for delivery next marketing year.

And the dollar declined through the session, supporting dollar-denominated prices, and increasing export prospects, falling 0.7% against a basket of currencies, to a five-week low.

November soybean futures finished the day down 0.9%, at $9.53 a bushel, falling below the 200-day moving average for the first time since April of this year, but 10 cents above the session low.

Wheat extends losses to 10-year low

But Chicago wheat markets plumbed a fresh 10-year low, under pressure from the weight of world supplies.

Adding to the bearish tone was the news out overnight that Japan and Korea had both taken steps to restrict US imports, due to concerns over unapproved genetically modified wheat verities.

And Gasc, the stat grain buyer for Egypt, appears to have curtailed its buying in Tuesday’s tender, taking just one 60,000 tonne cargo, of Russian wheat.

This is the smallest purchase of the marketing year.

Gasc bought 60,000 tonnes of Russian wheat from Midgulf at $168.90 a tonne, after many sellers lifted their prices from last week.

September Chicago wheat futures finished down 1.1%, at $4.01 ј a bushel, its lowest level since September 2006.

Corn falls to near two-year low on USDA condition report

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  • USDA pegs condition of corn crop above forecasts
  • Soybeans hit near three-month low
  • Wheat little changed

By Colin Packham

SYDNEY, Aug 2 (Reuters) – U.S. corn fell to a near two-year low on Tuesday, slipping for a second session after the U.S. Department of Agriculture pegged the condition of the crop at above market expectations.

Soybeans fell more than 0.5 percent to hit a three-and-a-half month low, while wheat was little changed.

The most active corn futures on the Chicago Board Of Trade Cv1 fell 0.2 percent to $3.33-1/2 a bushel by 0315 GMT, having earlier hit a session low of $3.33 a bushel – the lowest since October, 2014. Corn closed down 2.5 percent in the previous session.

Analysts said corn was coming under pressure as any lingering weather related supply concerns ease.

“The proportion of U.S corn rated in good to excellent condition [has] added to the bearish tone,” said Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, adding that updated weather models are also favourable.

“While corn is not yet totally in the clear, the window for significant weather related losses is quickly closing.”

The USDA rated 76 percent of the corn crop as good to excellent, unchanged from the week before and ahead of analyst forecasts.

The outlook is increasing market confidence of bumper U.S. corn production.

Commodity brokerage INTL FCStone INTL.O on Monday projected U.S. 2016 corn production at 15.146 billion bushels, a record high if realized, with an average yield of 175.0 bushels per acre.

The U.S. weather outlook also continues to pressure soybeans, analysts said.

The most active soybean futures Sv1 fell 0.4 percent to $9.57-1/2 a bushel, near the session low of $9.55-1/2 a bushel – the lowest since April 19. Soybeans slumped 4.1 percent on Monday.

The USDA rated 72 percent of the U.S. soybean crop as good to excellent, up from 71 percent the previous week and above market expectations.

The most active wheat futures Wv1 was little changed at $4.05-3/4 a bushel, having closed down 0.4 percent on Monday.