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GRAINS-Soybeans dip after rally, adverse weather forecast supports prices

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  • Soybeans ease after climbing to highest in more than a week
  • Forecasts of hot, dry weather across Midwest underpin prices

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By Naveen Thukral

SINGAPORE, July 13 (Reuters) – Chicago soybeans edged lower on Wednesday as the market took a breather after last session’s strong gains that were driven by forecasts of crop-damaging hot and dry weather across the U.S. Midwest.

Corn was little changed following a 1.5-percent rally on Tuesday, supported by a U.S. Department of Agriculture report showing tighter supplies of the feed grain.

The Chicago Board of Trade most-active soybean contract Sv1 slid 0.3 percent to $10.84 a bushel by 0220 GMT, after rallying over 3 percent in the last session. The market earlier hit its highest since July 5 at $10.97 a bushel.

Corn futures Cv1 gained 0.1 percent to $3.60-1/2 a bushel and wheat Wv1 gave up 0.1 percent to $4.38-1/4 a bushel.

“The market’s next concern is the forecast of adverse weather in the coming weeks when soybeans will in the pod-setting stage,” said Kaname Gokon at brokerage Okato Shoji in Tokyo. “Hot and dry weather will potentially reduce yields.”

Soybeans are drawing support amid worries about stressful crop conditions as forecasters said above-normal temperatures and near-normal to below-normal rainfall may spread across most of the U.S crop belt next week.

U.S. corn supplies will tighten more than expected in the coming months due to rising exports, but a bumper harvest will quickly re-stock grain bins, the USDA said on Tuesday.

The agency pegged 2015/16 U.S. corn stocks at 1.701 billion bushels, down 7 million bushels from its June estimate.

It predicted a big domestic soybean harvest would help offset rising overseas demand for U.S. supplies of the oilseed.

The USDA is likely to boost the already massive yield forecast in the coming months, according to historical data that show estimates of big crops tend to grow even larger as harvest time nears.

There is support for wheat with the outlook of lower production in France.

France’s farm ministry expects the country’s soft wheat production to shrink by almost 10 percent this year after heavy rain and limited sunshine hurt crops in the European Union’s biggest grain grower.

In its first estimate of 2016 soft wheat production on Tuesday, the ministry forecast a crop of 36.95 million tonnes, down 9.7 percent from 2015’s record volume of 40.9 million tonnes.

Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT soybean, corn and wheat futures contracts on Tuesday. Traders’ estimates of net fund buying in soybeans ranged from 8,000 to 10,000 contracts and in corn from 3,000 to 6,000 contracts.

Corn hits 10-day high, soybeans up for second day on weather concerns

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  • Corn up for fourth day, hits highest since July 1
  • Soybeans rise for 2nd day on forecasts of dry weather

By Naveen Thukral

SINGAPORE, July 11 (Reuters) – Chicago corn futures climbed to a 10-day high on Monday, while soybeans gained for a second session with prices underpinned by forecasts of hot and dry weather for the key U.S. Midwest producing region.

Wheat was little changed after rallying on Friday on the back of gains in corn and beans.

The most-active corn contract Cv1 on the Chicago Board Of Trade rose one percent to $3.66-1/4 a bushel by 0312 GMT, having hit a session high of $3.68 a bushel, strongest since July 1. Corn jumped 4 percent in the previous session.

Soybeans Sv1 rose 1 percent to $10.68 a bushel and wheat Wv1 was flat at $4.35 a bushel.

Corn and soybeans drew support on forecasts for hot and dry weather, stoking concerns about stress on both crops as they head toward key developmental phases.

“U.S. Midwest is facing weather problems, one-month forecast is showing hot and dry weather starting at the end of July,” said Kaname Gokon at brokerage Okato Shoji in Tokyo. “It could impact soybean crop yields.”

Strong demand for beans is providing additional support.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said early on Friday that weekly old-crop export sales of soybeans totalled a bigger-than-expected 637,300 tonnes. New-crop export sales of 585,700 tonnes were in line with market forecasts.

In bullish news for the corn market, India has asked a government-backed trader to import an extra half a million tonnes of duty-free, non-genetically modified corn to keep a lid on domestic prices and overcome any shortage, the trade ministry said on Sunday.

Rising domestic demand and stagnating production has seen India turning into a net importer from an exporter.

Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT corn, soybean and wheat futures contracts on Friday. Traders’ estimates of fund purchases in corn ranged from 5,000 to 11,000 contracts. They bought between 3,000 and 4,500 wheat contracts and 8,000 soybean contracts.

Soybeans face biggest weekly loss in 2 years on U.S. weather

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  • Soybeans down almost 10 pct this wk, biggest since June 2014
  • Funds sell soybean contracts as ideal U.S. weather aids crop

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By Naveen Thukral

SINGAPORE, July 8 (Reuters) – Chicago soybean futures were on Friday set for their biggest weekly decline since June 2014 as near-perfect U.S. weather boosted the prospects of a bumper crop.

Corn is poised for a third week of decline as the U.S. crop thrives in friendly weather in its crucial pollination phase, while wheat is on track to suffer its fifth week of losses.

Chicago soybean futures Sv1 have lost nearly 10 percent this week, their biggest weekly fall since June 2014 as rains aid the U.S. crop and fears of dry La Nina weather pattern ease.

“There is long liquidation in soybeans,” said Kaname Gokon at brokerage Okato Shoji in Tokyo.

“There have been heavy rains in the U.S. Midwest which are good for the crop.”

Expectations by weather forecasters that the onset of a La Nina, which could trigger a dry summer in the U.S. Midwest, had been pushed back to September suggest soybeans will not get hit during their key development stage in August, CBA analysts said.

Corn Cv1 has lost 4.5 percent this week, falling for a third consecutive week, while wheat Wv1 is down more than 1 percent in its fifth week of losses.

Corn has given up close to 20 percent in three weeks and wheat has shed more than 14 percent in five weeks.

The U.S. corn crop is getting a boost from rains and ideal weather in its pollination phase.

Still, the decline in corn futures is being limited by Brazil’s Conab lowering its outlook for the country’s corn production to 69.14 million tonnes from 76.22 million, largely due to problems with the second crop.

Commodity funds were net sellers of Chicago Board of Trade soybean and wheat futures contracts on Thursday. Traders’ estimates of fund sales in soybeans ranged from 14,000 to 20,000 contracts.

Estimates for wheat ranged from net even to sales of 2,500 contracts. Traders estimated that funds were net even in corn. COMFUND/CBT

Meanwhile, exports of French soft wheat, which competes with U.S. wheat, to buyers outside the European Union rose in May to 1.6 million tonnes, the highest monthly volume since the 2015/16 season began in July last year.

Exports since the beginning of the 2015/16 season now total 11.4 million tonnes, up 12 percent from the July-May period in 2014/15.

Corn, soybeans rebound after weather-inspired selloff

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  • Corn hit contract low overnight, soy dropped to 6-week trough
  • Expectations of favourable weather will remain a drag on futures

By Manolo Serapio Jr

MANILA, July 7 (Reuters) – U.S. corn and soybean futures rebounded on Thursday following a selloff in the prior session pinned on favourable weather that boosted hopes for a bountiful harvest in the fall.

The gains are likely to be fleeting though, analysts say.

“The U.S. near-term weather narrative remains decidedly bearish,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia analysts said in a note, citing forecasts of more rain in the U.S. Midwest.

“Forecasters have flagged that the southwestern Corn Belt will likely turn drier again after this week, but on balance U.S. crops are in very good shape,” they said.

Corn for December delivery on the Chicago Board of Trade CZ6 gained 0.7 percent to $3.50-3/4 a bushel by 0214 GMT, after touching a contract low of $3.46 overnight.

CBOT soybeans SX6 gained 0.3 percent to $10.76-3/4 a bushel, having dropped to $10.40-1/2 on Wednesday, its weakest since May 25.

Expectations by weather forecasters that the onset of the La Nina weather pattern, which could trigger a dry summer in the U.S. Midwest, had been pushed back to September suggests that soybeans won’t get hit during their key development stage in August, CBA analysts said.

“The less threatening outlook will continue to weigh on the market,” they added.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly conditions report on Tuesday showed strong ratings for corn, soybeans and wheat.

Chicago wheat WU6 rose 0.5 percent to $4.30-1/2 a bushel.

Black Sea wheat exporters Russia and Ukraine have started harvesting and are seeing higher yields and the same quality as a year ago, analysts and traders said.

Corn extends losses into fifth session

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  • Corn falls, lingers near lowest since October, 2014
  • Wheat falls 1 percent, soybeans edge lower
  • USDA to report latest crop condition report on Wednesday

By Colin Packham

SYDNEY, July 6 (Reuters) – U.S corn fell for a fifth consecutive session on Wednesday as favourable weather forecasts added to expectations of bumper supplies.

Wheat fell 1 percent, while soybeans fell nearly 0.5 percent.

The most actively traded corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade CZ6 fell 0.35 percent to $3.56-3/4 a bushel after closing down 2.5 percent in the previous session when prices hit a contract low.

Front-month corn futures Cv1 were little changed, having closed down more than 6 percent on Tuesday when prices fell to a low of $3.33-3/4 a bushel – the lowest since October, 2014.

Analysts said expectations of ample global supplies continue to weigh on prices.

“The reality is there are favourable conditions,” said Phin Ziebell, agribusiness economist, National Australia Bank. “We occasionally get some supply concerns but none of them seem to come through to impacting production.”

The outlook for more rain in key growing areas of the U.S. Midwest during the next two weeks outweighed concerns about some dry conditions in about 15 to 20 percent of the Midwest, including southeast Iowa and western Illinois.

Front-month wheat futures Wv1 fell 1.2 percent to $4.15-1/4 a bushel, having closed down 2.5 percent on Tuesday.

Front-month soybean futures Sv1 eased 0.54 percent to $11.11 a bushel, having closed down 1.8 percent on Tuesday.

Soybeans are under pressure amid signs of weak demand for U.S. supplies.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Tuesday morning said export inspections of soybeans totalled just 191,426 tonnes in the latest week, down from 295,816 a week ago and below the low end of analysts’ forecasts.

Analysts said the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s latest weekly update on crop conditions, which will be released at 3 p.m. CDT (2000 GMT), will likely drive the next price trigger.

Analysts are expecting the report to show that good-to-excellent conditions for both corn and soybeans fell 1 percentage point.

GRAINS-U.S. wheat, soybeans, corn fall on rising supply view

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By Mark Weinraub

CHICAGO, July 1 (Reuters) – U.S. wheat futures sank to multi-year lows on Friday, pressured by an ample global stockpile that was expected to grow even larger due to a bountiful harvest, traders said.

Corn and soybean futures also weakened, with soybeans settling back from a rally on Thursday that pushed prices to a two-week high.

The U.S. Agriculture Department’s acreage report from Thursday, which showed a surprise bump in corn and spring wheat acreage, continued to cast a shadow over the grains market.

“The market is back to trading fundamentals,” said Greg Grow, director of agribusiness at Archer Financial Services. “The acreage increase in corn was unexpected, the acreage increase in spring wheat was unexpected. The world is well supplied in feed grains right now.”

The front-month Chicago Board of Trade soft red winter wheat contract Wc1shed 3.5 percent to a nine-year low while K.C. hard red winter KWc1 wheat touched a fresh 10-year low.

Forecasts for benign weather across much of the U.S. Midwest during the next few weeks – a key time for corn development – also weighed on prices.

“Highs warm into the mid to upper 90s (degrees Fahrenheit) for the far southern/western Midwest next Wednesday to Friday, but the rain ahead of this event will recharge soil moisture and lessen stress to pollinating corn,” Commodity Weather Group said in a note to clients.

Private analytics firm Informa Economics forecast U.S. corn production at 14.531 billion bushels and soybean production at 3.89 billion bushels. Both estimates were above the current U.S. Agriculture Department outlook. 

CBOT soft red winter wheat for September delivery WU6 settled down 15-1/4 cents at $4.30-1/4 a bushel, K.C. September hard red winter wheat KWU6 was 11 cents lower at $4.11-1/2 a bushel and MGEX September spring wheat 1MWEU6 was down 9 cents at $4.99-1/4 a bushel.

CBOT December corn CZ6 was off 4-1/4 cents at $3.67 a bushel. CBOT November soybeans SX6were down 15-3/4 cents at $11.37-1/2 a bushel.

For the week, CBOT soft red winter wheat was down 7.7 percent, its biggest weekly decline in two years. K.C. wheat was off 6.7 percent, its fourth straight weekly loss.

CBOT corn fell 4.5 percent this week and soybeans were up 5.5 percent, their biggest weekly gain since October 2014.

Wheat faces fourth week of decline, lingers near 6-year low

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  • Wheat down 10 pct in 4 weeks of decline on supply pressure
  • Corn has lost 15 pct in 2 weeks, USDA boosts planting outlook

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By Naveen Thukral

SINGAPORE, July 1 (Reuters) – U.S. wheat lost more ground on Friday with the market set for a fourth week of decline, as a U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report that pegged plantings above expectations dragged on prices.

Corn, which has lost around 15 percent in two weeks of losses, is expected to decline further as excess wheat supply takes its market share in the animal feed market.

Chicago Board Of Trade most-active wheat contract Wv1 is down nearly 5 percent this week. In the previous session, prices hit a low of $4.36 a bushel, the weakest since June 2010.

Corn Cv1, which plumbed an 11-week low of $3.65-1/4 a bushel on Thursday, has given up more than 3 percent this week.

“Corn had rallied due to spillover from gains in the soybean market but the reality is that there is too much corn around and now we have increase in U.S. acreage,” said Phin Ziebel, agribusiness economist at National Australia Bank in Melbourne.

“The supply and demand situation is bearish for grains and more so for corn as feed wheat is going to eat into its market share.”

The USDA, in an acreage report, said domestic all-wheat plantings totaled 50.816 million acres, topping analysts’ forecasts for 49.869 million and the agency’s March estimate of 49.559 million.

Corn seedings were 94.148 million acres, above the high end of analysts’ estimates. On an average, they had expected acreage to fall from the government’s March forecast of 93.601 million.

The USDA, in a separate report, said corn inventories as of June 1 were the biggest since 1988 while soybean stocks for that period were the third biggest ever.

Soybean futures Sv1 are up nearly 7 percent this week, the biggest weekly gain since October 2014.

The acreage report showed farmers planted a record 83.688 million soybean acres, above the government’s March forecast of 82.236 million but below analysts’ estimates for 83.834 million.

Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT corn contracts on Thursday and net buyers of soybean futures.

Trader estimates of fund selling in corn ranged from 15,000 to 25,000 contracts, and estimates of fund buying in soybeans ranged from 14,000 to 25,000 contracts. Estimates of fund buying in wheat ranged from zero to 5,000 contracts.

Grain markets sunk, ahead of a slew of US government data

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PM markets: sugar futures surge to 4-year high
Sugar and coffee futures soared, as the currency of top grower Brazil rallied, while wheat prices slumped as the market remains glutted, with fresh US stocks data out on Thursday.

Raw sugar futures shot up more than 6%, fuelled as strength in the real out of its previous trading range, to its highest level in four years.

Raw sugar prices are now on track to close the quarter up 36%.

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Stiff U.S. corn export competition redrawing global grain flows

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By Karl Plume

CHICAGO, June 28 (Reuters) – U.S. corn export sales have outpaced last year as steady buying by Mexico helped to offset sluggish early-season purchases by traditional Asian customers like South Korea and Japan.

Now, Mexico is primed to overtake Japan as the single largest U.S. corn importer, knocking Tokyo from the perch it has occupied since the mid-1980s and taking the top spot for the first time ever.

The shift illustrates how the United States, once the world’s lone grain trading superpower, is now relying on its southern neighbor to absorb more of its ever-growing corn stockpile, analysts said, as rising suppliers like Ukraine and Brazil have disrupted global grain trade flows.

It is also the product of a multiyear commodities boom that began in 2007 which bolstered farming in South America and Eastern Europe and grain shipping investments by local governments and large grain traders such as Cargill Inc CARG.UL and Archer Daniels Midland Co ADM.N.

At risk is the long-standing dominance of U.S. corn exports, valued at $8.3 billion last year and a crucial outlet for about a third of every U.S. corn crop.

“There’s been a shuffling of the top of the deck,” said Dan Basse, president of Chicago-based consultancy AgResource Co. “It’s a very competitive world out there.”

The change in export patterns highlights how quickly the fortunes in the farm economy can turn, and how little time companies have to respond to those changes, said traders. U.S. corn exports account for a 6.2-percent share of the agricultural products export total, according to the USDA.

Despite a three-month buying flurry, Japan remains on pace to buy its second-smallest U.S. corn volume since at least 1999, according to the most recent U.S. Department of Agriculture data. South Korea’s haul through mid-June is the second-lowest in a decade.

STALLING RALLY

But the recent rise in demand by Asia’s largest importers could soon stall, thanks in part to Brexit which has riled currency markets.

The U.S. dollar .DXY has rallied to a three-month high against a basket of currencies after Britain’s vote last week to split from the European Union, making dollar-denominated commodities costlier for those holding other currencies. Meanwhile, Brazilian and Argentine corn prices are easing as their late-season corn harvests accelerate.

“Buyers respond to price. If you’re not able to offer grain cheaper than the next guy, you’re not going to get that business,” said a U.S. corn exporter who asked not to be named.

When Asian buyers started shunning U.S. corn last fall, some of the largest American grain exporters and sellers scouted markets closer to home to offset the losses, said traders.

In particular, they turned to markets that industry-funded groups, such as the U.S. Grains Council, had been wooing for years and regularly hosted at U.S. grain elevators and farms.

Mexico, traders said, was an obvious place to pitch due to proximity and favorable trade status. For Colombia and Peru, free trade agreements also made buying corn from Brazil and Argentina less appealing than American grain.

UNCERTAIN FUTURE

Latin American demand for corn is rising with growing livestock and corn processing industries. But as U.S. farmers look to harvest another massive corn crop this fall, questions remain about whether these markets can absorb the surplus.

Mexico’s import appetite can vary significantly depending on the size of its own grain crop and the availability of alternative feed grains like sorghum, analysts cautioned.

The USDA’s attache in Mexico this month cut the country’s corn import outlook by 1 million tonnes, or 7.4 percent, from the official USDA forecast due to higher-than-previously-estimated domestic production.

And, globally, competition from South America is only going to grow.

Brazil’s agriculture minister last week proposed raising the minimum corn price, a move that could shift more of the country’s soybean area into corn production. Corn plantings in Argentina could jump 20 percent after changes to the country’s export policies.

  • U.S. corn export markets

Corn eases on stable U.S. crop condition, wheat struggles

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  • Corn falls on better-than-expected U.S. crop condition
  • Soybeans underpinned by strong demand, concerns over dryness

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By Naveen Thukral

SINGAPORE, June 28 (Reuters) – Chicago corn futures lost ground on Tuesday, falling for a sixth out of seven sessions, as a U.S. government report showed healthy crop conditions despite concerns over dry weather.

Soybeans rose for a second session, underpinned by forecasts of dry weather in the U.S. crop belt next month while the wheat market faced headwinds from a rapidly progressing U.S. harvest.

Chicago Board of Trade most-active corn contract Cv1 was down 0.3 percent to $3.84-1/4 a bushel by 0215 GMT, while soybeans Sv1 gained 0.3 percent to $11.08-1/2 a bushel. Wheat Wv1 lost 0.1 percent to $4.58 a bushel.

“U.S. corn conditions came in unchanged on the previous week, so prices struggled,” said Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

“Some of the driest areas of the U.S. Midwest received rain over the weekend. The Delta and Southeast mostly trended drier, but meteorologists say the region should see widespread precipitation today.”

After the CBOT closed on Monday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture rated 75 percent of the U.S. corn crop as good to excellent, bucking expectations for a downgrade. US/COR

Wheat futures have come under pressure on reports of large yields from the U.S. winter crop.

U.S. farmers have finished harvesting 45 percent of the winter crop as compared with 25 percent a week ago and above the five-year average of 41 percent, the USDA said.

Soybeans were underpinned by forecasts of a return to hot temperatures in the second half of July.

The USDA rated 72 percent of the U.S. soybean crop in good to excellent condition, down from 73 percent the previous week and in line with analyst expectations.

The agency in a separate report confirmed sales of another 150,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations on Monday, following sales announcements of more than 400,000 tonnes on Friday.

The USDA is set to release closely watched stocks and plantings estimates on Thursday.

Those reports will show the extent to which brisk export demand has whittled down corn and soybean inventories, and whether farmers planted more soybeans and less corn than initially expected due to a spring rally in soy prices.

Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT soybean futures contracts on Monday and net sellers of corn and wheat.

Trade estimates of fund buying in soybeans ranged from 6,000 to 18,000 contracts, and estimates of fund selling in wheat ranged from 4,000 to 5,000 contracts. Estimates of fund activity in corn ranged from net sellers of 6,000 contracts to net buyers of 4,000 contracts.