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‘About 80%’ of Ukraine soy grown – illegally – from GM seed

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by agrimoney.com

About 80% of Ukraine’s soybeans, and 10% of corn, are grown – illegally – from genetically modified seed, US officials said, attributing improved seed quality in part for expectations for strong harvests this year.

The US Department of Agriculture – expanding on an initial estimate two weeks ago that Ukraine will produce a record 5.0m tonnes of soybeans this year – said the forecast reflected in part expectations of yield matching an all-time high of 2.17 tonnes per hectare, supported by genetically engineered seed.

“Although the planting of genetically modified crops is officially prohibited, estimates from private commodity analysts suggest that about 80% of Ukraine’s soybeans are genetically modified,” the USDA said.

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GRAINS-Corn eases from one-month high; soy falls for second day on dollar gain

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  • Corn snaps five-session rally on stronger dollar
  • Dollar firm as Fed minutes keep June rate hike alive
  • Wheat pressured by outlook for higher Black Sea output
  • Argentina’s soybean exports seen down 25 pct

Adds details, quotes

By Naveen Thukral

SINGAPORE, May 19 (Reuters) – Chicago corn futures slid on Thursday as a stronger dollar prompted investors to take profits after prices climbed to a near one-month peak in the last session.

The dollar stood tall in Asian trading, after racing to multi-week highs when the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting rekindled expectations for a June interest rate hike. USD/

“The dollar strength is bearish for corn, wheat and soybeans,” said Kaname Gokon at brokerage Okato Shoji in Tokyo.

“But we have corn planting delays due to cool and wet weather in the Midwest which will prevent any deep decline in prices.”

The most-active corn contract on the Chicago Board Of Trade Cv1 fell 0.7 percent to $3.96-3/4 a bushel by 0241 GMT. Corn hit a near one-month high of $4.00-1/2 a bushel in the last session, the most since April 21.

Wheat Wv1 lost 0.3 percent to $4.78-1/2 a bushel and soybeans Sv1 gave up 0.7 percent to $10.67-1/4 a bushel.

A stronger U.S. dollar makes commodities, traded on a dollar basis, more expensive for importers holding other currencies.

The corn market on Wednesday received support from a proposal for higher ethanol blending in the United States.

U.S. regulators proposed a modest increase in the amount of corn-based ethanol and biofuels that fuel producers must mix into diesel and gasoline in 2017.

The Environmental Protection Agency called for 18.8 billion gallons to be blended into the nation’s fuel supply in 2017, up 4 percent from the 18.11 billion gallons set for this year.

Argentina could export up to 25 percent fewer soybeans this year than last, analysts said, after severe rains left many fields underwater, damaging oilseed quality.

In April, floods inundated key farm areas of Argentina, the world’s third-biggest exporter of raw soybeans, prompting the U.S. Department of Agriculture to slash its forecast for soybean output to 56.5 million tonnes this year.

There is additional pressure on wheat stemming from expectations of higher yields in the Black Sea region.

Warm and wet spring weather in leading Black Sea grain producers Russia and Ukraine, has paved the way for a large wheat harvest this year, analysts and traders said on Tuesday.

Brazil corn crop losses will require contract renegotiations

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By Roberto Samora

CUIABA, Brazil, May 17 (Reuters) – Producers of winter corn in Brazil must renegotiate delivery contracts for forward sales, curtailing exports of the grain, after dry weather caused severe losses to the crop, specialists said.

Farmers will begin harvesting the winter, or second, corn crop in the coming weeks, and the heaviest losses are expected in the leading two producer states of Mato Grosso and Goias, which together account for half of the national output.

Corn crops in other states, including Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso do Sul, are also expected to suffer losses due to dryness, but Agroconsult analyst Valmir Assarice said defaults are likely to be few.

“People are very uncertain at the moment,” Assarice said, “but … in the end, the producer will fulfill his contract, either delivering the product or renegotiating (delivery).”

He said buyers of winter corn on the market were few and typically large trading companies.

“If the producer defaults, he will be put on a blacklist, and nobody will buy from him next year,” Assarice said during Agroconsult’s Rally da Safra crop tour through the grain belt.

He added, however, that a considerable number of contracts would have to be renegotiated due to the shortage of the commodity.

Luiz Nery Ribas, technical director of soybean producers association Aprosoja, said there were many types of contracts used on the market. Some of the strictest ones require payment of the value of the contract plus fines on failure to deliver.

Others only require fines, while the delivery of corn is more flexible, with producers sometimes allowed to deliver in the following crop.

The Mato Grosso agriculture federation Famato estimates the state’s producers have sold forward 63 percent of the expected crop that should start harvesting in June.

“Accounting for losses, that 63 percent sold could turn into 80 percent of the crop,” said Daniel Latorraca, superintendent of the Imea agricultural economics institute of Mato Grosso.

Analysts are already lowering their expectations for Brazil’s corn exports in the second half of 2016, as international grain merchants are likely to see better returns from selling the corn domestically than from shipping it abroad, Assarice said.

Corn eases from two-week top on positive U.S. planting progress

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  • Corn falls from highest since May 4, wheat eases
  • Above average corn planting in U.S. Midwest weighs on prices
  • Wheat faces pressure from Argentine exports, good U.S. crop

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By Naveen Thukral

SINGAPORE, May 17 (Reuters) – Chicago corn futures slid on Tuesday, falling from last session’s two week high as the above-average pace of planting across the U.S. Midwest anchored prices.

Wheat lost ground as the market faced pressure from the stable condition of the U.S. hard red winter wheat crop while soybeans edged higher after closing lower for the last four sessions.

Chicago Board Of Trade most-active corn contract Cv1 fell 0.4 percent to $3.92-1/4 a bushel by 0313 GMT, after hitting a two-week high of $3.94-1/4 a bushel on Monday.

Wheat Wv1 dipped 0.3 percent to $4.73-1/2 a bushel and Sv1 gained 0.1 percent to $10.65 a bushel.

“The trend in corn is a bit bearish as U.S. farmers are quickly planting the crop and the weather seems to be favourable,” said Kaname Gokon at brokerage Okato Shoji in Tokyo.

“The winter wheat crop is doing well but there are some concerns about forecasts of rains which have potential to reduce yields.”

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly crop progress report pegged U.S. corn plantings at 75 percent complete as compared with 64 percent a week ago and above the five-year average pace of 70 percent.

Soybean plantings were 36 percent over, higher than 23 percent a week ago and five-year average of 32 percent.

Soybean prices are facing headwinds from slowing demand.

U.S. soybean processors cut back on their pace of crushing during April, with slowdowns in major production areas of the Midwest overcoming year-on-year increases at southern plants, the National Oilseed Processors Association said on Monday.

NOPA said that its members crushed 147.614 million bushels of soybeans in April, down from 156.69 million during March.

The USDA rated 62 percent of the hard red winter wheat crop in good-to-excellent condition, similar to a week ago but above the five-year average of 45 percent.

In other news in the wheat market, Argentine wheat exports more than doubled in the first quarter, government data showed, as farmers rushed to sell stockpiles ahead of an expected jump in plantings spurred by the open-market policies of new President Mauricio Macri.

The surge in Argentine supply is hitting an oversaturated world market and putting downward pressure on prices.

Commodity funds were net buyers of an estimated 4,000 to 8,000 Chicago Board of Trade corn contracts on Monday. They were net even in both soybeans and wheat, traders said.

Corn rebounds but lingers near one-month low ahead of USDA report

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  • Corn rebounds but USDA forecast caps gains
  • Wheat, soybeans also rise
  • USDA to issue 2016/17 supply-demand forecast

By Colin Packham

SYDNEY, May 10 (Reuters) – U.S. corn edged up on Tuesday from a near one-month low hit in the previous session, though gains were checked as traders readied for a U.S. Department of Agriculture report due later in the day that is expected to show stocks at a 29-year high.

Wheat also rose, rebounding from losses of nearly 1.6 percent, while soybeans gained as well.

The most active corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade Cv1 rose 0.34 percent to $3.70-1/4 a bushel after dropping 2.2 percent on Monday, when prices hit the lowest since April 13 at $3.68-1/4 a bushel.

Analysts said the market was drawing support from position squaring ahead of a widely watched USDA report coming out later in the session.

“The market is expecting a bearish USDA report and that triggered the losses on Monday, and the market is seeing some rebounding today,” said Andrew Woodhouse, grains analyst at Advance Trading Australasia.

“The only uncertainty is the South American corn supply, and that is the one to watch.”

The USDA report will include the government’s first official supply-and-demand tables for the 2016/17 marketing year.

Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect the agency to project that U.S. corn stocks will balloon above 2.2 billion bushels by the end of 2016/17, which would be the most since 1987/88.

Traders said a USDA weekly update on plantings is also providing a ceiling to gains. The USDA said corn plantings was 64 percent complete, ahead of market expectations of 62 percent complete.

The most active soybean futures Sv1 rose 0.37 percent to $10.30-1/4 a bushel, having closed down 0.8 percent on Monday.

Soybean planting progress was pegged at 23 percent complete, slightly ahead of expectations.

The most active wheat futures Wv1 rose 0.38 percent to $4.58-1/4 a bushel, having closed down 1.56 percent on Monday.

The USDA has projected world wheat stocks to reach an all-time high by the end of 2015/16, and analysts surveyed by Reuters expect stocks to swell further by the end of 2016/17

Spring wheat plantings was 77 complete, the USDA said, ahead of market expectations of 74 percent complete.

The USDA pegged the condition of the winter wheat crop at 62 percent good to excellent, matching market forecasts.

China 2016 corn output to fall 2.9 pct as stockpiling ends

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BEIJING, May 9 (Reuters) – China’s corn production in 2016 is expected to decline 2.9 percent from last year to 218 million tonnes, as farmers in the northeast are expected to switch crops, a state-backed think tank said on Monday.

China decided in March to end a corn stockpiling programme that supported domestic prices for farmers and at the same time spurred imports of cheaper substitutes like sorghum and distillers’ grains.

The China National Grain and Oils Information Center (CNGOIC) said it expected the policy change to bring output down by 6.58 million tonnes this year, with demand already weakening.

The CNGOIC said feed demand had slowed, and was expected to drop 10.4 percent to 110.4 million tonnes over the 2015-16 marketing year. Overall corn consumption was expected to reach 185.54 million tonnes over the period, leaving a surplus of 41.85 million tonnes.

Chinese corn prices had already fallen by a large amount since the beginning of the 2015-16 marketing year, making imports less attractive, CNGOIC added.

It predicted corn imports would fall by more than a half to 2.7 million tonnes over the 2015-16 marketing year, while imports of distillers’ grains would fall to 3.5 million tonnes over the same period, down nearly 60 percent from the 2014-15 marketing year.

Chinese distillers’ grains imports over the whole of 2015 hit a record 6.82 million tonnes, up 26 percent on the year, according to the country’s customs authority. Sorghum imports also jumped 85 percent on the year to a record 10.69 million tonnes.

Mystery corn cargo sparks rumors Brazil is buying U.S. grain

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Mon, 25 Apr 2016 04:00:00 GMT

By Karl Plume and Gustavo Bonato

CHICAGO/SAO PAULO, April 25 (Reuters) – The grains market is abuzz with speculation that drought-hit Brazil has bought its first major cargo of U.S. corn in two decades, as the world’s third-largest corn grower scrambles to secure feedstock with no sign of the supply crisis easing.

The talk comes after Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, last week scrapped import taxes on corn from countries outside the Mercosur trade bloc, its latest effort to curb record domestic prices and boost supplies.

Soaring exports have starved the nation’s consumers, like poultry producers, while farmers worry the prolonged dry spell could damage the upcoming crop due to be harvested in June.

Bumper prices and the duty suspension have triggered a flurry of dealmaking as the supply crunch offers traders in the region an unexpected, and unusual, new market for the world’s excess corn.

About 700,000 tonnes of corn have been booked from Argentina and Paraguay, which enjoy a tariff-free trade with Brazil under the Mercosur customs agreement.

But export sales data on Wednesday showed an undisclosed buyer had booked a 136,000-tonne U.S. corn purchase, sparking widespread speculation among grain traders that Brazil was the buyer.

If so, the world’s No. 2 corn exporter would be reaching beyond its traditional suppliers Argentina and Paraguay in what would be the nation’s largest U.S. corn purchase since 1995. (nL3N17O4D6)

The dealmaking underscores how the growing crisis in Brazil is upending regional trade flows and forcing buyers to extend their search for alternative supplies.

Marden Vasconcelos, vice president of local poultry association Aceav, said he was offered containers of corn from a major U.S. merchant.

“I was surprised, because I always thought the shipping price of a container would be higher, but it opens up another possibility for our imports,” he said.

U.S. Department of Agriculture export inspections data may reveal the destination as soon as Monday, though traders said the disclosure would more likely come later as shippers may need more time to finalize the details of the transaction before physically loading a vessel.

FIRST IN 20 YEARS

As much as 700,000 tonnes of U.S. corn could get shipped to Brazil over the next few months before its next crop is harvested, traders estimated.

That’s tiny compared with the tens of million of tonnes the United States and Brazil, the world’s top corn exporters, ship abroad each year and the 122 million tonnes in annual global corn trade.

But it’s far in excess of U.S. volumes heading to Brazil over the past 20 years, Brazilian government data shows.

Early calculations indicate U.S. corn is competitive with Argentine material because of the vast oversupply and ocean freight rates are at historic lows.

Tariff-free bulk shipments from the U.S. Gulf Coast to northeast Brazil, where several smaller poultry producers are located, are estimated to be about $6 per tonne cheaper than Argentine imports and at least $35 per tonne less than domestic corn, Reuters and industry data showed.

“We were closing the deal for the third Argentine ship when we heard about the tax cut. We decided to wait and see how the prices go,” said Vasconcelos.

The unusual trade route has been a challenge even for experienced U.S. merchants and Brazilian buyers, who must ensure grain has all regulatory clearances and does not contain unapproved biotech varieties, grain traders said.

Importing an entire ship loaded with corn is the kind of business only a handful of local poultry producers can handle, so smaller amounts arriving by containers can be an alternative, specialists said.

Smaller buyers in northeast Brazil, home to most of the region’s poultry farms, are used to buying only domestic grain from familiar suppliers, which can further complicate the process, they said.

“There’s a lot of corn here in the U.S. and if it makes sense ecomonically let them bring it,” said Pedro Dejneka, president of consultancy AGR Brasil in Chicago.

(Editing by Josephine Mason and Cynthia Osterman)