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Wheat ticks up after deep losses, U.S. yields in focus

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  • Chicago wheat edges higher after Tuesday’s over 3 pct fall
  • Dryness trims North Dakota spring wheat yield prospects
  • Soybeans up for 2nd day as market recovers from 3-month low

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By Naveen Thukral

SINGAPORE, July 27 (Reuters) – Chicago wheat rose on Wednesday as the market recovered from a more than three percent fall in the previous session, supported by a widely watched crop tour that found lower U.S. spring wheat yield prospects.

Corn edged higher after closing about half a percent lower while soybeans rose for a second session on bargain buying following a decline to three-month low on Tuesday.

The Chicago Board Of Trade’s most-active wheat contract Wv1 rose 0.4 percent to $4.16-3/4 a bushel, having closed down 3.3 percent on Tuesday on pressure from ample global supplies.

Corn Cv1 gained 0.4 percent to $3.40-3/4 a bushel and soybeans Sv1 added 0.8 percent to $9.81-1/2 a bushel.

Yield prospects for hard red spring wheat in southeast North Dakota were below average following a dry spell earlier this year, scouts on an annual crop tour said on Tuesday.

The wheat crop in the southeastern corner of the state was developing one to two weeks ahead of normal, aided by early planting as well as dry weather in May and June that may have advanced the crop’s maturity.

Reduced estimates for the harvest in the top exporting region of the European Union had pushed Chicago wheat to a 10-day high on Monday, but ample global supplies are keeping a lid on prices.

“There are some periodic concerns about yields and adverse weather but overall global supplies are looking really good,” said Phin Ziebell, agribusiness economist at National Australia Bank.

“You need to see a big decline in yields or significant period of adverse weather for prices to rally. There are some bargains to be had but beyond that it is all about fundamentals.”

For soybeans, extended weather forecasts reaching into August – the most crucial month for establishing U.S. yields – showed sufficient precipitation that could help offset the potential for stress caused by high temperatures.

Midday weather models on Tuesday showed a stronger ridge of high pressure in the central United States growing belt that could lead to increased dryness, according to an agriculture meteorologist at Lanworth, a division of Thomson Reuters.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture after the close of trading on Monday left good-to-excellent condition ratings unchanged for the U.S. soybean and corn crops, when analysts were predicting slightly lower ratings due to heat. US/COR, US/SOY

Historically high U.S. crop ratings increased the likelihood for higher-than-normal yields at harvest.

Brazil 2016/17 soy area should grow modestly – AGR Brasil

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SAO PAULO, July 26 (Reuters) – The area planted with soy in Brazil in 2016/17 should grow 2 percent to 33.8 million hectares as some farmers favor corn, Chicago-based analysts AGR Brasil told Reuters on Tuesday.

Brazil is facing a corn shortage, driving local prices up to record highs and changing a trend of farmers favoring soybeans in recent years. Soy planting will start in late September but farmers need to finalize their decisions now.

“The increase in summer corn, in our opinion will not threaten the increase in soy area but will merely limit its growth,” AGR Brasil’s President Pedro Dejneka said in an interview.

The soy crop could be 98 million to 108 million tonnes, according to AGR Brasil.

“The forecast is still for La Niña … but it is possible that it is a moderate La Nina,” Dejneka said, explaining that the climate phenomenon tends to lead to favorable rains and temperatures in most agricultural areas.

La Nina, however, tends to hurt the far southern state of Rio Grande do Sul as well as neighboring Argentina, he said.

U.S. corn, soy crop ratings seen declining on heat stress

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CHICAGO, July 25 (Reuters) – The U.S. Department of Agriculture will likely show decreased condition ratings for U.S. corn and soybean crops after hot temperatures stressed developing plants last week, a Reuters poll of 10 analysts showed on Monday.

USDA in its weekly crop progress and conditions report due at 3 p.m. CDT (2000 GMT) is expected to show corn ratings at 75 percent good to excellent and soybeans at 70 percent good to excellent, each down 1 percentage point from last week, according to average analyst estimates. US/CORUS/SOY

Hotter-than-normal temperatures negatively impacted corn and soybean fields, especially in the lower half of the United States, while crop conditions also tend to ease seasonally in the warmest days, the analysts said.

However, plentiful rainfall in much of the U.S. Corn Belt limited the potential for heat damage, they said.

Analysts expect the government to report 69 percent of the U.S. spring wheat crop as good to excellent, unchanged from a week earlier. US/WHE

They predicted the winter wheat harvest would advance to 86 percent complete, up from 76 percent in the previous week.

All figures below in percent:

Category Average Range Prior week
Corn condition* 75 74-76 76
Soybean condition* 70 70-71 71
Spring wheat condition* 69 68-69 69
Winter wheat harvested 86 81-89 76
*Percent good/excellent

Corn faces 5th week of losses as U.S. weather improves, soy falls

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  • Corn extends decline on forecasts of cooler U.S. weather
  • Soybeans give up Thursday’s gains, wheat little changed

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By Naveen Thukral

SINGAPORE, July 22 (Reuters) – Chicago corn futures were on track for a fifth consecutive week of decline on Friday as an outlook for cooler temperature across the U.S. grain belt boosted expectations of a bumper crop.

Soybeans slid, giving up overnight gains, while wheat was steady after ending up on Thursday with prices underpinned by concerns over wet weather hurting crops in Europe.

Chicago Board of Trade most-active corn contract Cv1 has lost 5.2 percent this week. Soybeans Sv1have also given up about 5 percent after finishing last week largely unchanged.

Wheat Wv1, however, is down more than 1 percent in its second week of decline.

“For corn, (adverse) weather concerns for the U.S. crop have failed to materialise. A lot of speculative length has been unwound,” said Brett Cooper, senior manager for markets at FCStone Australia.

“One supporting factor in the wheat market has been the impact of very wet couple of months in Europe, lowering quality and yields.”

The latest U.S. weather view calls for high temperatures currently hovering over the corn belt to quickly moderate, with some beneficial rains also in the mix for the weekend.

There is additional pressure on corn stemming from U.S. data showing a drop in demand.

A weekly U.S. Department of Agriculture report said that old-crop corn export sales came in at 345,100 tonnes in the seven days ended July 14, down from 667,777 tonnes a week ago.

New new-crop sales were 506,300 tonnes, down from 687,843 tonnes. The old-crop figure was below market forecasts while the new-crop number was in line with expectations.

New-crop soybean export sales totalled a bigger-than-expected 1.002 million tonnes, sharply up from 547,046 tonnes a week earlier. Old-crop soybean sales were 325,000 tonnes.

In more bearish news, Argentina raised its view for the country’s 2015-16 soybean and corn crops on robust yields.

The Agriculture Ministry said it now expects 39.8 million tonnes from the 2015-16 corn crop, up from 37.9 million in its last monthly report, and it forecast 58.8 million tonnes of soybeans, compared with 58 million before.

Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT corn futures contracts on Thursday. They were net buyers of wheat contracts and even in soybeans.

Soybeans edge up after sharp falls, market eyes August weather

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  • Soybeans tick up after falling almost 4 pct last session
  • Forecasts of U.S. Midwest rains weigh on prices, corn firms

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By Naveen Thukral

SINGAPORE, July 15 (Reuters) – Chicago soybeans edged up on Friday as the market took a breather, after sliding almost 4 percent in the previous session on pressure from forecasts of crop-boosting rains in the U.S. Midwest.

Corn gained 0.7 percent, while wheat added more than 1 percent.

The Chicago Board of Trade most-active soybean contract Sv1 was up 0.6 percent at $10.69 a bushel by 0275 GMT, while corn Cv1 rose 0.7 percent to $3.67-1/4 a bushel.

Wheat Wv1 was up 1 percent at $4.38-1/2 a bushel.

“The soybeans market has come under pressure and that can change again,” said Ole Houe, an analyst with brokerage IKON Commodities in Sydney.

“The market will be volatile, we see a 110 cents trading range in soybeans and 50 cents in corn. It will go on for a month or so.”

For the week, soybeans have gained 1.3 percent, partly recouping the 7 percent loss a week earlier. Corn Cv1 has risen 1.4 percent in what could be its first weekly gain in a month, while wheat Wv1 has added 0.9 percent, heading for its second straight weekly gain.

The latest weather outlook has reduced the likely duration of scorching temperatures across the U.S. corn belt next week. More rains have been forecast, which will help protect the crop from the searing heat.

A better-than-expected export report from the U.S. Agriculture Department on Thursday morning limited the sell-off in corn.

The USDA said old-crop export sales of corn came in at 667,800 tonnes last week and new-crop export sales were 687,800 tonnes. Both figures topped the high ends of a range of market forecasts. EXP/CORN

Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT soybean, corn and wheat futures contracts on Thursday.

Traders’ estimates of net fund selling in soybeans ranged from 14,000 to 20,000 contracts. Funds were seen selling 8,000 to 11,000 corn contracts and 3,000 to 4,000 wheat contracts.

Corn near 2-wk high, soybeans up for 3rd day on US weather concerns

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  • Corn gains more ground on forecasts of hot, dry U.S. weather
  • Soybeans up 5 percent in three days of gains, wheat firms

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By Naveen Thukral

SINGAPORE, July 14 (Reuters) – Chicago corn futures rose 0.8 percent on Thursday, while soybeans hovered near their highest in more than a week, with forecasts of hot and dry weather across U.S. Midwest raising concerns about global supplies.

Wheat was up for a third day, although gains were capped by the outlook for ample global supplies.

The Chicago Board of Trade most-active corn contract Cv1 had climbed 0.8 percent to $3.72-3/4 a bushel by 0224 GMT, having gained 2.6 percent on Wednesday when prices hit $3.75-1/2 a bushel, their highest since June 30.

Soybeans Sv1 rose 0.5 percent to $11.10-1/2 a bushel, having climbed in the last session to $11.19-1/2 a bushel, the strongest since July 5.

Weather forecasts showed rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall in the U.S. Midwest during early August, a critical time for soybean development.

“Concerns about dry weather due to La Nina weather has given upside response to prices,” said Phin Ziebell, agribusiness economist, National Australia Bank.

“The real story is that a lot of corn has gone in the ground and production doesn’t look terrible.”

U.S. corn supplies will tighten more than expected in the coming months due to rising exports, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its monthly supply and demand report on Tuesday.

The most active wheat futures Wv1 rose 0.6 percent to $4.42-1/4 a bushel, having closed up 0.3 percent on Wednesday.

Wheat’s gains lagged corn and soybeans due to plentiful global supplies and expectations that the big U.S. harvest will add to the glut.

Still, heavy rain and strong winds are likely to curb the potential for Western Canada’s crops, government officials said, but the harvest may still be bigger than average.

Pockets across Saskatchewan, Canada’s biggest wheat- and canola-growing province, received as much as 5 inches (127 millimetres) of rain, strong winds and hail since Sunday.

Strong demand is boosting French wheat exports. Farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday raised its estimate for French soft wheat exports in 2015/16 to a near-record, leading it to trim again expected stocks in the European Union’s biggest wheat producer.

Commodity funds were net buyers of Chicago Board of Trade soybean, corn and wheat futures contracts on Wednesday.

Traders’ estimates of net fund buying in corn ranged from 13,000 to 16,000 contracts. Funds were seen as net even to buyers of 2,000 wheat contracts. They bought an estimated 7,000 soybean contracts.

GRAINS-Soybeans dip after rally, adverse weather forecast supports prices

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  • Soybeans ease after climbing to highest in more than a week
  • Forecasts of hot, dry weather across Midwest underpin prices

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By Naveen Thukral

SINGAPORE, July 13 (Reuters) – Chicago soybeans edged lower on Wednesday as the market took a breather after last session’s strong gains that were driven by forecasts of crop-damaging hot and dry weather across the U.S. Midwest.

Corn was little changed following a 1.5-percent rally on Tuesday, supported by a U.S. Department of Agriculture report showing tighter supplies of the feed grain.

The Chicago Board of Trade most-active soybean contract Sv1 slid 0.3 percent to $10.84 a bushel by 0220 GMT, after rallying over 3 percent in the last session. The market earlier hit its highest since July 5 at $10.97 a bushel.

Corn futures Cv1 gained 0.1 percent to $3.60-1/2 a bushel and wheat Wv1 gave up 0.1 percent to $4.38-1/4 a bushel.

“The market’s next concern is the forecast of adverse weather in the coming weeks when soybeans will in the pod-setting stage,” said Kaname Gokon at brokerage Okato Shoji in Tokyo. “Hot and dry weather will potentially reduce yields.”

Soybeans are drawing support amid worries about stressful crop conditions as forecasters said above-normal temperatures and near-normal to below-normal rainfall may spread across most of the U.S crop belt next week.

U.S. corn supplies will tighten more than expected in the coming months due to rising exports, but a bumper harvest will quickly re-stock grain bins, the USDA said on Tuesday.

The agency pegged 2015/16 U.S. corn stocks at 1.701 billion bushels, down 7 million bushels from its June estimate.

It predicted a big domestic soybean harvest would help offset rising overseas demand for U.S. supplies of the oilseed.

The USDA is likely to boost the already massive yield forecast in the coming months, according to historical data that show estimates of big crops tend to grow even larger as harvest time nears.

There is support for wheat with the outlook of lower production in France.

France’s farm ministry expects the country’s soft wheat production to shrink by almost 10 percent this year after heavy rain and limited sunshine hurt crops in the European Union’s biggest grain grower.

In its first estimate of 2016 soft wheat production on Tuesday, the ministry forecast a crop of 36.95 million tonnes, down 9.7 percent from 2015’s record volume of 40.9 million tonnes.

Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT soybean, corn and wheat futures contracts on Tuesday. Traders’ estimates of net fund buying in soybeans ranged from 8,000 to 10,000 contracts and in corn from 3,000 to 6,000 contracts.

Corn hits 10-day high, soybeans up for second day on weather concerns

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  • Corn up for fourth day, hits highest since July 1
  • Soybeans rise for 2nd day on forecasts of dry weather

By Naveen Thukral

SINGAPORE, July 11 (Reuters) – Chicago corn futures climbed to a 10-day high on Monday, while soybeans gained for a second session with prices underpinned by forecasts of hot and dry weather for the key U.S. Midwest producing region.

Wheat was little changed after rallying on Friday on the back of gains in corn and beans.

The most-active corn contract Cv1 on the Chicago Board Of Trade rose one percent to $3.66-1/4 a bushel by 0312 GMT, having hit a session high of $3.68 a bushel, strongest since July 1. Corn jumped 4 percent in the previous session.

Soybeans Sv1 rose 1 percent to $10.68 a bushel and wheat Wv1 was flat at $4.35 a bushel.

Corn and soybeans drew support on forecasts for hot and dry weather, stoking concerns about stress on both crops as they head toward key developmental phases.

“U.S. Midwest is facing weather problems, one-month forecast is showing hot and dry weather starting at the end of July,” said Kaname Gokon at brokerage Okato Shoji in Tokyo. “It could impact soybean crop yields.”

Strong demand for beans is providing additional support.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said early on Friday that weekly old-crop export sales of soybeans totalled a bigger-than-expected 637,300 tonnes. New-crop export sales of 585,700 tonnes were in line with market forecasts.

In bullish news for the corn market, India has asked a government-backed trader to import an extra half a million tonnes of duty-free, non-genetically modified corn to keep a lid on domestic prices and overcome any shortage, the trade ministry said on Sunday.

Rising domestic demand and stagnating production has seen India turning into a net importer from an exporter.

Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT corn, soybean and wheat futures contracts on Friday. Traders’ estimates of fund purchases in corn ranged from 5,000 to 11,000 contracts. They bought between 3,000 and 4,500 wheat contracts and 8,000 soybean contracts.

Soybeans face biggest weekly loss in 2 years on U.S. weather

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  • Soybeans down almost 10 pct this wk, biggest since June 2014
  • Funds sell soybean contracts as ideal U.S. weather aids crop

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By Naveen Thukral

SINGAPORE, July 8 (Reuters) – Chicago soybean futures were on Friday set for their biggest weekly decline since June 2014 as near-perfect U.S. weather boosted the prospects of a bumper crop.

Corn is poised for a third week of decline as the U.S. crop thrives in friendly weather in its crucial pollination phase, while wheat is on track to suffer its fifth week of losses.

Chicago soybean futures Sv1 have lost nearly 10 percent this week, their biggest weekly fall since June 2014 as rains aid the U.S. crop and fears of dry La Nina weather pattern ease.

“There is long liquidation in soybeans,” said Kaname Gokon at brokerage Okato Shoji in Tokyo.

“There have been heavy rains in the U.S. Midwest which are good for the crop.”

Expectations by weather forecasters that the onset of a La Nina, which could trigger a dry summer in the U.S. Midwest, had been pushed back to September suggest soybeans will not get hit during their key development stage in August, CBA analysts said.

Corn Cv1 has lost 4.5 percent this week, falling for a third consecutive week, while wheat Wv1 is down more than 1 percent in its fifth week of losses.

Corn has given up close to 20 percent in three weeks and wheat has shed more than 14 percent in five weeks.

The U.S. corn crop is getting a boost from rains and ideal weather in its pollination phase.

Still, the decline in corn futures is being limited by Brazil’s Conab lowering its outlook for the country’s corn production to 69.14 million tonnes from 76.22 million, largely due to problems with the second crop.

Commodity funds were net sellers of Chicago Board of Trade soybean and wheat futures contracts on Thursday. Traders’ estimates of fund sales in soybeans ranged from 14,000 to 20,000 contracts.

Estimates for wheat ranged from net even to sales of 2,500 contracts. Traders estimated that funds were net even in corn. COMFUND/CBT

Meanwhile, exports of French soft wheat, which competes with U.S. wheat, to buyers outside the European Union rose in May to 1.6 million tonnes, the highest monthly volume since the 2015/16 season began in July last year.

Exports since the beginning of the 2015/16 season now total 11.4 million tonnes, up 12 percent from the July-May period in 2014/15.

Corn, soybeans rebound after weather-inspired selloff

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  • Corn hit contract low overnight, soy dropped to 6-week trough
  • Expectations of favourable weather will remain a drag on futures

By Manolo Serapio Jr

MANILA, July 7 (Reuters) – U.S. corn and soybean futures rebounded on Thursday following a selloff in the prior session pinned on favourable weather that boosted hopes for a bountiful harvest in the fall.

The gains are likely to be fleeting though, analysts say.

“The U.S. near-term weather narrative remains decidedly bearish,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia analysts said in a note, citing forecasts of more rain in the U.S. Midwest.

“Forecasters have flagged that the southwestern Corn Belt will likely turn drier again after this week, but on balance U.S. crops are in very good shape,” they said.

Corn for December delivery on the Chicago Board of Trade CZ6 gained 0.7 percent to $3.50-3/4 a bushel by 0214 GMT, after touching a contract low of $3.46 overnight.

CBOT soybeans SX6 gained 0.3 percent to $10.76-3/4 a bushel, having dropped to $10.40-1/2 on Wednesday, its weakest since May 25.

Expectations by weather forecasters that the onset of the La Nina weather pattern, which could trigger a dry summer in the U.S. Midwest, had been pushed back to September suggests that soybeans won’t get hit during their key development stage in August, CBA analysts said.

“The less threatening outlook will continue to weigh on the market,” they added.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly conditions report on Tuesday showed strong ratings for corn, soybeans and wheat.

Chicago wheat WU6 rose 0.5 percent to $4.30-1/2 a bushel.

Black Sea wheat exporters Russia and Ukraine have started harvesting and are seeing higher yields and the same quality as a year ago, analysts and traders said.