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China sees slight increase in soybean imports this year – grain official

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  • China 2016/17 soy imports seen below USDA current forecast
  • Corn imports set to fall due to large feed grain stocks

LONDON, June 14 (Reuters) – China, the world’s biggest soy buyer, expects to import 85 million tonnes of soybeans in 2016/17, up from the prior season, although bumper stocks in storage should limit the increase, a senior official said on Tuesday.

Li Xigui, division director with state-run China National Grain & Oils Information Center (CNGOIC), told the IGC grain conference in London, soybean imports were expected to reach 82 million tonnes in the 2015/16 year on an October-September season.

That compared with 78.35 million tonnes in 2014/15, CNGOIC figures showed.

The forecast for 2016/17 is slightly below the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s current forecast for Chinese soybean imports of 87 million tonnes.

“There will be increase but not to such a great level,” Li said through a translator.

“Although American soybean exports to China are on the increase, the increase is controllable.”

Li said China had been stockpiling soybeans for a number of years.

“We need to hurry up the sale of these reserves,” he said, adding that the global market was “too optimistic” about further Chinese soybean demand.

China imported 7.66 million tonnes of soybeans in May, up 8.3 pct from 7.07 million tonnes in April, figures from the General Administration of Customs of China showed last week.

Li forecast a marginal decline in China’s wheat production in 2016/17 (June/May) to 130.1 million tonnes from the prior season’s 130.2 million.

Imports were seen stable at 3.0 million tonnes.

China corn production was forecast to fall to 218 million tonnes from the prior season’s 224.6 million, reflecting a 2.6 percent fall in planted area and 0.5 percent drop in yields.

Li said corn imports would, however, decline to 1.0 million tonnes from the prior season’s 2.7 million tonnes due to a glut of supplies of feed grains.

“Our capacity is saturated so we try to reduce our stocks,” he said.

GRAINS-Corn jumps 2.5 pct on supply concerns; soybeans, corn firm

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  • Corn up 2.5 pct in biggest 1-day gain in a month, soy rises
  • USDA cuts ending stocks outlook, funds continue to buy

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By Naveen Thukral

SINGAPORE, June 13 (Reuters) – U.S. corn rallied 2.5 percent on Monday and soybeans gained almost 1 percent, with prices supported by concerns over a severe drought in Brazil and unseasonal rains in Argentina curbing global supplies.

Wheat rose, tracking gains in corn and soybeans, although prices were capped by expectations of a bumper harvest of the U.S. winter crop.

“Funds are continuing with their bullish bets on corn and soybean markets,” said Kaname Gokon at brokerage Okato Shoji in Tokyo.

“The USDA has cut its estimates for ending stocks as there is strong demand for U.S. products.”

The Chicago Board of Trade most-active corn contract Cv1 was up 2.5 percent at $4.33-1/2 a bushel by 0217 GMT, its biggest one-day gain since mid-May. Soybeans Sv1 added 0.9 percent to $11.88-3/4 a bushel.

Wheat Wv1 rose 0.7 percent to $4.98-1/2 a bushel.

Agricultural markets have been showing bullish momentum since April as a severe drought has hit Brazilian corn production, while heavy rains have swamped Argentina’s soybean crop.

Domestic supplies of corn and soybeans will be tighter than expected in the United States as problems with crops in Brazil and Argentina have raised demand for U.S. supplies from overseas buyers, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Friday.

In its monthly supply and demand report, the government cut its new-crop and old-crop ending stocks outlooks for both corn and soybeans by more than analysts had forecast.

For corn, the USDA said U.S. ending stocks for 2015/16 would be 1.708 billion bushels, down from its May outlook for 1.803 billion bushels. It lowered its 2016/17 corn end stocks view to 2.008 billion bushels from 2.153 billion bushels.

Old-crop soybean stocks were cut to 370 million bushels from 400 million bushels. New-crop soy stocks were lowered to 260 million bushels from 305 million bushels.

The market will focus now on what the USDA will say on June 30, when it releases its estimates for U.S. quarterly grain stocks and planted acres. It will also keep a close eye on the weather that could threaten recently planted U.S. corn and soybean crops.

Large speculators raised their net long position in CBOT corn futures in the week to June. 7, regulatory data released on Friday showed.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly commitments of traders report also showed that noncommercial traders, a category that includes hedge funds, trimmed their net short position in CBOT wheat and raised their net long position in soybeans.

GRAINS-Soybeans extend gains into fourth session, near 2-yr high

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3 hours ago

6/9/2016, 5:05:46 AM

SYDNEY, June 9 (Reuters) – U.S. soybeans rose for a fourth consecutive session on Thursday, with forecasts of unfavourable weather for U.S. production pushing prices towards their highest in nearly two years.

FUNDAMENTALS

* The most active Chicago Board of Trade March soybeans Sv1 climbed 0.11 percent to $11.79 a bushel, having firmed 3.2 percent on Wednesday when prices hit their highest since the end of June 2014 at $11.89-1/4 a bushel.

* The most active corn futures Cv1 fell 0.35 percent to $4.29-3/4, having gained 0.82 percent in the previous session when prices hit a peak of $4.39-1/4 a bushel – the highest since last July.

* The most active wheat contract Wv1 dropped 0.14 $4.18-3/4 a bushel, having closed up 2.1 percent on Wednesday when prices hit a seven-month high.

* Forecasts for dry weather across key U.S. soybean growing regions have been supporting prices.

* The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has announced spot soybean sales for three days in a row, highlighting the problems that excessive rains have wreaked on the harvest in Argentina.

* USDA said early on Wednesday that exporters booked deals to ship another 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to China during the 2015-16 crop year. China is the top buyer of the oilseed.

MARKET NEWS

* The New Zealand dollar took centre stage in early Asian trade on Thursday, surging to a one-year high after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand defied expectations for an interest rate cut and stood pat. USD/

* Oil prices remained near 2016 highs in early trading on Thursday, buoyed by a fall in U.S. crude inventories, a weaker dollar and strong demand, but some analysts warned that the recent rally was starting to look overblown. O/R

* The Dow ended above 18,000 for the first time since April on Wednesday as declines in the dollar lifted some commodity-related shares and boosted the outlook for multinationals.

GRAINS-Soybeans near 2-year peak on U.S. weather concerns, fund buying

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  • Soy up for 4th day as La Nina seen hitting U.S. crop
  • Chicago corn, wheat futures dip after 6-session rally

Adds details, quotes

By Naveen Thukral

SINGAPORE, June 9 (Reuters) – U.S. soybeans gained for a fourth consecutive session on Thursday, trading close to a two-year top as the market was buoyed by forecasts of a dry growing season in the United States.

Corn and wheat futures, which have risen for the last six sessions, ticked lower as the grain markets took a breather.

“Strong gains that we have seen in soybeans are in response to some of the supply concerns in South America and there is nervousness that U.S. won’t perform well because of La Nina weather,” said Phin Ziebell, agribusiness economist at National Australia Bank.

“Where we go from here will all depend on what happens to the U.S crop.”

Chicago Board of Trade most-active soybean contract Sv1 edged 0.1 percent higher at $11.78-1/2 a bushel by 0221 GMT. The market rallied 3.2 percent on Wednesday when prices hit their highest since June 2014 at $11.89-1/4 a bushel.

Corn Cv1 slid 0.4 percent to $4.29-3/4, having gained 0.8 percent in the previous session and wheat Wv1 dropped 0.1 $5.18-3/4 a bushel, having closed up 2.1 percent on Wednesday.

Forecasts for dry weather due to a La Nina weather pattern across key U.S. soybean growing regions have been supporting prices.

Grain markets are experiencing one of the steepest U.S. planting-season rallies on record, propelled by acute demand, crop weather concerns, currency gyrations and speculative buying.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has announced spot soybean sales for three days in a row, highlighting the problems that excessive rains have wreaked on the harvest in Argentina.

The USDA said early on Wednesday that exporters booked deals to ship another 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to China during the 2015-16 crop year. China is the top buyer of the oilseed.

Funds have been actively buying agricultural commodities, fuelling the rally in prices, and were net buyers of CBOT soybean, corn and wheat contracts on Wednesday.

Analysts estimated that funds bought a net 20,000 soybean contracts, 8,000 to 15,000 corn contracts and 6,000 to 8,000 wheat contracts.

In news that could provide further gains, Southern Russia, key for wheat exports via the Black Sea, may reap a record wheat crop but of lower quality compared to last year, Dmitry Rylko, the head of agriculture consultancy IKAR said on Wednesday.

Russia, a major global wheat exporter to North Africa and the Middle East, was hit by excessive rains at the end of last week which raised concerns among some analysts about the quality of its wheat crop.

Soybeans up for 3rd day on U.S. weather concerns, wheat eases – RTRS

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08-Jun-2016 06:02
  • Soybeans gain more ground on f’casts of dry U.S. summer
  • Wheat eases after 5-day rally on Europe rains, corn dips

By Naveen Thukral

SINGAPORE, June 8 (Reuters) – Chicago soybean futures rose for a third consecutive session on Wednesday, with prices underpinned by forecasts of hot and dry weather during the U.S. summer growing season.

Wheat eased as the market took a breather after a five-session rally which was triggered as unseasonal rains in Europe sparked concerns over potential crop losses.

The Chicago Board of Trade most-active soybean contract  Sv1 had risen 0.4 percent to $11.46-1/4 a bushel by 0237 GMT, having closed 0.3-percent higher on Tuesday.

Wheat  Wv1 slid 0.3 percent to $5.07-1/4 a bushel after gaining almost 10 percent in the last five sessions, while corn  Cv1 fell 0.2 percent to $4.27 a bushel.

“Investors and traders are worried about dryness in U.S. soybeans’ establishment and development stages,” said Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Midwest Market Solutions said weather forecasts for July for key U.S. soybean growing regions call for hotter and direr conditions than normal, stirring fears that a La Nina weather pattern could be emerging.

Soybeans have climbed about 34 percent since the beginning of March as unseasonal rains caused widespread damage to the crop in Argentina, the world’s third largest supplier.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s announcement that private exporters sold 180,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for 2016/17 delivery supported prices. That marked the second day in a row that the government had announced a sale of U.S. supplies.

Torrential rain in France could cut wheat yields in the European Union’s biggest grower although better conditions in countries including Germany are keeping western Europe on course for another large harvest this year.

U.S. winter wheat ratings fell by one point to 62 percent, but the relatively good score and drier weather for the U.S. harvest under way have underlined ample U.S. supplies.

Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT soybean, corn and wheat futures contracts on Tuesday.

Traders estimated that funds activity in corn ranged from net even to buyers of 7,000 contracts. In soybeans, they were estimated to be net buyers of 3,000 to 5,000 contracts. For wheat, estimates ranged from net purchases of 5,000 to 7,000 contracts.

Soybeans rally on Argentina’s crop woes, wheat hits 6-week top – RTRS

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  • Soybeans jump 1.3 pct on concerns over LatAm crops
  • Corn rises for 4th day, wheat hits six-week high

By Naveen Thukral

SINGAPORE, June 6 (Reuters) – U.S. soybeans gained 1.3 percent on Monday, rising in three out of the last four sessions, with prices underpinned by declining supplies from key supplier Argentina.

Corn rose for a fourth consecutive session on tightening supplies in Brazil, while wheat climbed to a six-week high as heavy rains threatened crop prospects in western Europe.

The Chicago Board of Trade most-active soybeans  Sv1 contract climbed 1.3 percent to $11.46-1/2 a bushel by 0254 GMT and corn  Cv1 added 0.7 percent to $4.21 a bushel. Wheat  Wv1 rose as much as 1 percent to $5.02 a bushel, highest since April

21.

“Solid U.S. export sales are lending support to ideas that, as South American basis firms, importers are switching over to more U.S. beans,” said Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

“The greenback’s dive on Friday provides an added boost to U.S. competitiveness.”

Renewed rains in Argentina have heightened concerns about crop losses in the world’s third-largest producer. Exports of soybeans and products such as soymeal from the country may decline sharply after rains in April caused widespread damage to the crop.

Additional support for beans stemmed from a U.S. Agriculture Department report that showed strong demand for new-crop supplies that will be delivered in the fall.

Brazil, the world’s second largest corn exporter, continues to face tight supplies.

Record-high corn prices in the country are compelling pork producers to slaughter sows they cannot afford to feed and poultry processors to close plants.

Southern states that are the traditional home to pork and poultry plants have been hardest hit by soaring corn feed prices and a plunge in demand for meat, with companies closing at least three slaughter houses to cut supply, said Francisco Turra, president of Brazil’s Animal Protein Association.

The condition of cereal crops in France worsened again last week, farm office FranceAgriMer said on Friday, in a sign that heavy rain is affecting crops in the European Union’s largest grain producer.

Forecast heavy rains over Australia’s east coast next week are expected to boost wheat production above official estimates in the world’s fourth-largest exporter, analysts said on Friday.

Large speculators raised their net-long position in Chicago Board of Trade corn futures in the week to May. 31, regulatory data released on Friday showed.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly commitments of traders report also showed that non-commercial traders, a category that includes hedge funds, increased their net-short position in CBOT wheat and raised their net-long position in soybeans.

SocGen upbeat on prospects for soybean, hard wheat futures

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Soybean and hard wheat futures look undervalued – but not for contracts this side of 2017, Societe Generale said, forecasting that investors may have already overegged short-term price prospects.

While the bank raises its price forecasts for most major grain contracts, by up to $2.84 a bushel for soybean futures, its outlooks for the rest of 2016 remained below those that investors are factoring in.

For corn, the bank forecast Chicago futures averaging $3.94 a bushel in the last three months of this year, below the price of $4.16 ¼ a bushel being factored in on Thursday by the December contract.

“US corn farmers are well on their way to finish planting another large corn crop,” SocGen analyst Rajesh Singla said, saying that the grain “remained more profitable” for farmers than rival soybeans during the key January-April period for making sowings decisions.

The bank also raised doubts on the demand side, of US corn exports rising by 175m bushels to 1.90bn bushels in 2016-17, as forecast by the US Department of Agriculture.

“With the sharp increase in corn exports from Argentina and expectations of a recovery in production in the EU, South Africa and Asia in 2016-17, US corn exports likely will face tough competition,” Mr Singla said.

‘Market may remain tight’

However, SocGen was more upbeat on prospects for soybean prices heading into next year, despite pitching prices for the rest of 2016 below the futures curve, seeing Chicago futures average $10.59 a bushel in the last three months of this year.

November futures were on Thursday trading at $10.71 ½ a bushel.

Soybean prices will jump to average $11.09 a bushel in the first three months of 2017 – well ahead of the $10.43 a bushel being priced in by March futures.

The bank cited a tightening to soybean supplies both from demand from China, where raised income and pork prices “should continue to support higher soybean imports”, and in production terms from South America.

“Brazil and Argentina, two key soybean exporters are showing signs of peaking soybean yields.

“We believe that with slowing acreage growth and peaking soybean yields, the soybean market may remain tight in the future.”

Farmer losses

And for wheat, it also saw some prospect for price gains in early 2017 beyond those investors are already pricing in – at least for Kansas City hard red winter wheat, which it forecast averaging $5.24 a bushel in the January-to-March period.

March 2017 futures were on Thursday trading at $5.13 ½ a bushel.

SocGen cautioned of a further drop in US sowings ahead, from levels which are already historically low, given that prices are “significantly below the cost of production”.

In fact, US wheat farmers on average face a loss of $120 an acre on wheat, once fixed costs are factored in, compared with a $51-an-acre profit on soybeans, the bank said.

Key spreads

The continued drop in wheat sowings should benefit in particular prices of hard red winter wheat, the biggest class in the US harvest, which should regain parity with Chicago soft red winter wheat “by the end of year”, and renew its typical premium early in 2017.

Kansas City wheat, currently trading at a discount of nearly 4% to its Chicago peer, July basis, typically trades at a premium of about 8%, earned by its higher protein content.

SocGen also flagged that the relatively weak wheat prices had cut their premium over corn to some 15% in Chicago, compared with a long-term average of 37%.

“This may increase wheat’s competitiveness versus corn for feed usage.”

Soybeans hit near 2-year high, corn at 10-month top on supply woes

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  • Soybeans up for 2nd day, hit highest in 22 months
  • Corn climbs to a 10 month peak, wheat firms
  • Lower supplies from South America driving prices higher

Adds details, quotes

By Naveen Thukral

SINGAPORE, June 2 (Reuters) – U.S. soybean futures rose to their highest in almost two years on Thursday, while corn climbed to a 10-month peak with prices in agricultural markets underpinned by lower supplies.

Wheat rose amid concerns over rains on the U.S. Plains which threaten the hard red winter wheat crop which is getting ready for harvest.

Chicago Board of Trade most-active soybean contract Sv1 climbed 0.6 percent to $11.06-3/4 a bushel by 0326 GMT. Earlier in the session, the market touched its highest since July 2014 at $11.09-3/4 a bushel.

Corn Cv1 gained 0.1 percent to $4.14-1/4 a bushel after hitting its highest since July at $4.15 a bushel and wheat Wv1 rose 0.5 percent to $4.76 a bushel, having closed up 2 percent on Wednesday.

Concerns over South American production have supported corn and soybean prices.

“There is a bullish trend as we are expecting strong demand for U.S. products, both soybeans and corn,” said Kaname Gokon at brokerage Okato Shoji in Tokyo.

“Chinese pork prices are at record high, so they will need more corn and soybeans to boost pork production.”

Brazil’s cereals exporters association Anec cut its estimate for 2016 corn exports to 23 million tonnes, down 7 million tonnes from its April outlook. It also said soybean exports in May fell to 8.69 million tonnes from a record 10.3 million tonnes in April.

Argentina has seen rains ahead of harvest in April cause widespread damage to the soybean crop.

Additional support stemmed from China’s strong demand for soybeans, which are crushed to make soymeal, a protein rich animal feed ingredient, and cooking oil.

Pork prices in China are climbing at a blistering pace despite government moves to cool markets in the world’s top consumer of the meat by selling chunks of its frozen reserves.

Government data released on Wednesday showed Chinese pork prices hit record levels this week, driven up as farmers hold back pigs from slaughter to rebuild herds following widespread culling in 2014 when prices were low.

Wheat has been buoyed by forecasts for rains across the southern U.S. Plains, which threatens production in the region.

Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT corn, soybean and wheat contracts on Wednesday. Trader estimates of net fund purchases in corn ranged from 13,000 to 15,000 contracts and 9,000 to 15,000 contracts in soybeans. Estimates of fund buying in wheat ranged from 3,500 to 4,000 contracts.

Soybeans, corn fall for 2nd day on US crop progress; wheat up

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  • Soybeans fall for 2nd day on rapid U.S. planting progress
  • Corn eases with no delay to U.S. planting despite rains

Adds comment, detail

By Naveen Thukral

SINGAPORE, June 1 (Reuters) – Chicago soybean and corn futures slid for a second session on Wednesday as both markets came under pressure from rapidly progressing planting across the U.S. Midwest.

Wheat edged higher following deep losses which were triggered by forecasts of improved harvest conditions for the U.S. hard red winter wheat crop.

The Chicago Board of Trade most-active soybean contract Sv1 had fallen 0.6 percent to $10.72-1/2 a bushel by 0303 GMT, having closed down 0.7 percent on Tuesday. Corn Cv1 dropped 0.3 percent to $4.03-1/2 a bushel after closing the last session down 1.9 percent.

Wheat Wv1 advanced 0.2 percent to $4.65-1/4 a bushel, having dropped 3.5 percent on Tuesday. Earlier in the session it hit a low of $4.63 a bushel, its weakest since May 25.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture pegged the condition of corn at 72 percent good to excellent, slightly ahead of market expectations.

U.S. farmers had finished planting 94 percent of the crop as of Sunday as compared with 86 percent last week, the agency said after the market closed on Tuesday.

Soybean plantings were 73 percent complete, the USDA said, sharply higher than 56 a week ago and above the average pace of 66 percent.

“While rain over the holiday weekend may have been a nuisance for fieldwork it does not appear to have slowed U.S. planting progress by all that much,” said Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

U.S. farmers have sold nearly double the usual amount of new-crop soybeans this spring, taking advantage of a 14-percent rally in the futures market to lock in profits on a crop that most have not even finished planting yet.

The sales could depress soybean basis bids – the difference between the futures market and the cash price – at grain terminals around the U.S. Midwest during harvest.

Wheat was under pressure on Tuesday as weather forecasts call for improving U.S. harvest conditions for the winter crop.

The USDA said condition of winter wheat crop 63 percent good to excellent, ahead of analysts’ forecasts.

Spring wheat was pegged at 79 percent good to excellent, ahead of forecasts for 76 percent good to excellent.

Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT corn, soybean and wheat contracts on Tuesday.

Trader estimates of net fund sales in corn ranged from 8,000 to 13,000 contracts and 5,000 to 10,000 in soybeans. Estimates of fund selling in wheat ranged from 6,000 to 12,000 contracts.