USDA sees higher record U.S. soy crop, futures fall (RT)

The U.S. Agriculture Department said on Monday that record U.S. soybean yields and production would be higher than previously forecast due to improved crop conditions during August, a critical development period for the oilseed.

The USDA, in issuing its latest monthly U.S. crop forecasts,also trimmed its corn production and yield projections from its August outlook. Even so, they were pegged near the high end of analysts’ forecasts and USDA reiterated its expectation for a record harvest of the yellow grain.

The increased soybean production outlook outstripped rising demand from the domestic and export sectors, and USDA raised its outlook for supplies left at the end of the 2016/17 marketing year, commonly referred to as end stocks.

For corn, 2016/17 U.S. end stocks were lowered by 25 million bushels to reflect the reduced harvest expectations but remained on track to be the biggest since the 1987/88 marketing year.

“USDA increased (soybean) crush for next year and exports for next year, but you still ended up with production outweighing the demand increases,” said Jim Gerlach, president of A/C Trading in Indiana.

Soybean futures Sv1 fell to session lows after the report was released. Corn Cv1 also hit a session low but quickly recovered its losses to hover around unchanged.

USDA left its domestic wheat end stocks view unchanged in its supply and demand report, roughly in line with market expectations.

In the monthly update, USDA forecast the 2016/17 U.S. soybean crop at 4.201 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 50.6 bushels per acre. That topped analysts’ forecasts that ranged from 4.019 billion bushels to 4.162 billion bushels for production and 48.1 bushels per acre to 50.1 bushels per acre for yield.

Corn production was seen at 15.093 billion bushels, down from the government’s August estimate of 15.153 billion bushels. USDA lowered its corn yield view by 0.7 bushels per acre to 174.4 bushels per acre.

On the supply side, the government cut its 2015/16 soybean ending stocks view to 195 million bushels from 255 million bushels. Analysts, on average, had expected 2015/16 soy ending stocks of 232 million bushels. The move reflected a 60 million-bushel increase in exports for the marketing year.

For 2016/17, USDA pegged soybean ending stocks at 365 million bushels, up from 330 million bushels in its August report, due to the increased harvest view.

The government said 2015/16 U.S. corn ending stocks would be 1.716 billion bushels, up 10 million from August due to lower exports. For 2016/17, domestic corn stocks were pegged at 2.384 billion bushels.

Soybeans up for 4th day on weather concerns, strong demand (RT)

  • Soybeans rise, wet weather threatens to delay harvest
  • China-led strong demand underpins Chicago soybean prices
  • Corn dips as U.S. harvest kicks off, wheat ticks higher

Adds comment, detail

Chicago soybeans rose for a fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, with prices underpinned by strong demand and concerns over excessive wet weather delaying the U.S. harvest.

Corn prices remain under pressure as farmers start gathering a record-sized U.S. crop, while wheat ticked up after closing marginally lower on Tuesday.

The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade Sv1 had risen 0.1 percent to $9.61 a bushel by 0306 GMT, having firmed 0.8 percent on Tuesday when it hit the highest since Aug. 30 at $9.64 a bushel.

Corn Cv1 was unchanged at $3.28-1/2 a bushel, after dropping to multi-year lows last week and wheat Wv1 gained 0.2 percent to $3.99-1/4 a bushel.

“The U.S. Midwest is likely to receive more rain this week than had previously been forecast,” said Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy, Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

“While meteorologists have downplayed the impact on crops, plenty of market chatter about delays to maturation and harvesting is doing the rounds.”

Soybean prices drew support from a USDA report showing export inspections of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 1,232,739 tonnes, above a range of trade expectations for 700,000 to 950,000 tonnes.

Gains in soybeans are being capped by the healthy condition of the U.S. crop so far this season. The U.S. Department of Agriculture rated the soybean crop as 73 percent good-to-excellent, unchanged from last week. Analysts had expected a slight decline in ratings.

The USDA rated 74 percent of the U.S. corn crop in good-to-excellent condition, in line with trade expectations and down from 75 percent the previous week.

The government has not yet issued a national figure for corn harvest progress, but state reports pegged the harvest as 1-percent complete in Illinois and 8-percent complete in Missouri.

Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT soybean futures on Tuesday and small net sellers of corn and wheat. COMFUND/CBT

Meanwhile, Canada’s wheat stockpile shrank to its smallest mid-summer level on record, a Reuters trade survey estimated ahead of a government crop report.

Grains prices at 0306 GMT
Contract Last Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30 RSI
CBOT wheat 399.25 0.75 +0.19% +0.00% 424.63 31
CBOT corn 328.50 0.00 +0.00% +0.00% 333.07 47
CBOT soy 961.00 1.25 +0.13% +0.89% 979.77 37
CBOT rice 9.53 $0.01 +0.05% +1.11% $9.81 39
WTI crude 45.10 $0.27 +0.60% +1.49% $44.42 47
Currencies
Euro/dlr $1.125 $0.000 +0.01% +0.98%
USD/AUD 0.7669 -0.002 -0.22% +1.20%
Most active contracts
Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
RSI 14, exponential

U.S. weekly crop progress highlights – USDA (RT)

WASHINGTON, Aug 29 (Reuters) – Highlights of the U.S. Agriculture Department’s weekly crop progress report (all numbers expressed in percent):

Week ended                    08/28/16  08/21/16  08/28/15  5-year

RICE CONDITION

  - Excellent                     13       13       18       NA
  - Good                          47       48       48       NA
  - Fair                          27       26       28       NA
  - Poor                          8        9        4        NA
  - Very Poor                     5        4        2        NA

CORN CONDITION

  - Excellent                     21       21       19       NA
  - Good                          54       54       49       NA
  - Fair                          18       18       22       NA
  - Poor                          5        5        7        NA
  - Very Poor                     2        2        3        NA

COTTON CONDITION

  - Excellent                     9        8        9        NA
  - Good                          39       39       45       NA
  - Fair                          36       35       35       NA
  - Poor                          12       14       8        NA
  - Very Poor                     4        4        3        NA

SOYBEAN CONDITION

  - Excellent                     18       18       15       NA
  - Good                          55       54       48       NA
  - Fair                          20       21       26       NA
  - Poor                          5        5        8        NA
  - Very Poor                     2        2        3        NA
    RICE HARVESTED                22       15       24       21
    SPRING WHEAT HARVESTED        81       65       84       62
    CORN DOUGH                    92       85       90       87
    CORN DENTED                   60       40       54       52
    SOYBEANS DROPPING LEAVES      5        NA       8        5
    SOYBEANS SETTING PODS         94       89       91       92
    COTTON BOLLS OPENING          23       16       20       23
    COTTON SETTING BOLLS          95       92       91       94

Soybeans ease, corn falls for 2nd day on US crop report (RT)

  • Soybeans, corn fall as USDA rates crops in healthy condition
  • Strong soybean demand limits price decline, wheat extends losses

Chicago soybean futures lost ground on Tuesday, while corn slid for a second session, with renewed pressure on prices after a U.S. government report showed both crops thriving in near-perfect weather.

Wheat fell, adding to Monday’s more than 2 percent decline, as abundant global supplies continue to weigh on the market.

Chicago Board of Trade most-active corn contract Cv1 fell 0.5 percent to $3.40-3/4 a bushel by 0301 GMT, having closed down by about a similar amount in the previous session.

Soybeans Sv1 dipped 0.3 percent to $10.13 a bushel and wheat Wv1 gave up 0.7 percent to $4.32-1/4 a bushel.

“Growing conditions for beans are fantastic across the U.S. Midwest,” said one agricultural commodities analyst.

“The U.S. crop has been estimated to be a record large and it is likely to get bigger as the weather outlook for next week or two looks perfect.”

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) rated 75 percent of the U.S. corn crop in good-to-excellent condition, up from 74 percent the previous week, while soybean ratings held steady at 72 percent rated good-to-excellent. US/CROPS

Analysts had expected the USDA to report a decline in the condition of the corn crop, with soybeans seen as unchanged. At this time of last year, 69 percent of corn and 63 percent of soybeans were rated good-to-excellent.

Still, strong demand is underpinning the soybean market.

The USDA said private exporters sold 120,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown destinations for 2016-17 delivery.

The agency also reported export inspections of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 961,414 tonnes, above a range of trade expectations of 650,000 to 850,000 tonnes.

The European Union’s crop monitoring service significantly cut its forecast on Monday for average maize and soft wheat yields in this year’s EU harvest after adverse weather.

However, Russia is seen more than offseting the weather-related crop shortfalls in Europe.

Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT corn and wheat futures on Monday and net buyers in soybeans and soymeal, traders said.

Trader estimates of net fund selling in corn ranged from 3,000 to 6,000 contracts, and in wheat from 3,000 to 8,000 contracts. For soybeans, trader estimates of net fund buying ranged from 3,000 to 7,000 contracts.

USDA forecast gives mixed signals to soybean market -Braun (RT)

Karen Braun is a Reuters market analyst. Views expressed are her own.

Although last Friday’s soybean supply and demand report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture delivered a bearish feel to the market, there were quite a few bullish components lurking within.

USDA projected record U.S. soybean yields for this year’s harvest, offsetting a massive demand-based decrease in domestic old-crop carryout of 95 million bushels.

As a result, new-crop carryout for the world’s No. 2 soybean supplier rose by 40 million bushels despite demand increases for the 2016/17 marketing year. Traders still interpreted the overall news as bearish, since soybean futures contracts fell to end the week.

Traders said they expect the production forecast to cap rallies in the soybean market. (Full Story) This may be true in the short term, but it would not take much for the supply situation to tighten back up.

Based on recent trends, strong demand, and favorable weather for the current soybean crop, both supply and demand are likely to increase for U.S. soybeans in the upcoming marketing year.

But whichever one wins out will determine the direction of the soybean market, which is very sensitive to shifts in both supply and demand. So the latest figures from USDA are no cause for complacency.

DEMAND IS NOT GOING AWAY

Global soybean demand is stronger than ever and is still on the rise. Over the past couple of years, USDA has had the habit of increasing both exports and crush throughout the marketing year in response to the increasing demand (http://reut.rs/2bBIIVw).

Soybean exports and crush projections for the 2016/17 marketing year, which does not begin until Sept. 1, have increased by 3 percent and 1 percent, respectively, since the initial estimates were released in May.

Ending stocks have had the opposite trend. Although forecasts for the 2014/15 and 2015/16 carryout had at times topped 450 million bushels, both years ultimately fell far short of that at 191 million and 255 million bushels, respectively. Note that the latter figure is still subject to adjustment (http://reut.rs/2bBID4a).

Soybean use is already far outpacing long-term expectations, making the ceiling difficult to identify. Exports and crush are well ahead of USDA’s latest annual 10-year forecast, which is released each February.

U.S. soybean exports are annihilating these long-term projections. The latest estimate for the new marketing year, 1.95 billion bushels, is not even reached within USDA’s 10-year forecast period. The last season in the series, 2025/26, has 1.925 billion bushels slated in.

For the same marketing year, crush in 2015/16 is currently forecast 10 million bushels ahead of the February projection and 2016/17 crush is 30 million bushels ahead. The 1.94 billion bushels of soybeans expected to be crushed in the 2016/17 season were USDA’s target for the 2018/19 season.

With no evidence that the world’s appetite for soybeans and soybean meal is going away, U.S. exports and crush seem unlikely to fall below the current expectations and in fact are very good candidates for a continued increase.

In addition to the longer-term demand trends, short-term demand is holding its own. So far in August, daily soybean sales announcements to China and unknown destinations have been made on 11 separate days. For reference, there were only six such days in all of August 2015.

YIELD HAS CONTROL

Soybean yields are in the driver’s seat as they completely washed out the massive month-on-month drop in old-crop carryout. The market had expected an increase in both yields and carryout for 2016/17, but not to such a large degree in either one.

USDA’s soybean yield of 48.9 bushels per acre tops last year’s record (48 bushels per acre), the average pre-report analyst estimate (47.5 bushels per acre), and USDA’s initial 2016/17 trend yield (46.7 bushels per acre).

Such a high yield is not at all hard to believe. Not only are crop conditions the best since 2004, but the weather has been very supportive and will likely continue this way, at least in the near-term.

A couple of good, soaking rains are key for higher soybean yields, especially during August, the most critical month for pod setting and filling. Over the past week, ample rain showers blanketed the Midwest, including parched areas in the Eastern belt, and the forecast for next week holds moderate temperatures with scattered rainfall.

A higher realized yield at the end of the harvest is also likely based on USDA’s recent trend of underestimating final soybean yields in August. This has been the case for the past five years, showing that USDA certainly has not had a bias of being too high early on (http://reut.rs/2batdTJ).

However, the soybean balance sheet is highly sensitive to even the slightest tweaks in yield. If this year’s yield were to evenly match last year’s record of 48 bushels per acre, carryout would be slashed by 25 percent. And this makes the highly dubious assumption of no further increases to demand (http://reut.rs/2bpLelk).

Another factor on the supply side that is subject to change is planted/harvested area. In the past two seasons, final soybean area came in lower than what had been expected during late summer. This year’s soybean-friendly economics may quash that trend, but it is something that cannot be ruled out.

CLARITY COMES IN OCTOBER

Even though the 2016/17 U.S. soybean crop should be completely harvested in about three months, the associated balance sheet will not be “finalized” until October 2017. But the 2015/16 situation will become clearer in October, and this will set the tone for the new marketing year.

With the soybean marketing year ending on Aug. 31, the necessary pieces of information do not all become available until about a month afterward and are therefore not reflected until the October supply and demand report.

In early October, final trade data from the U.S. Census Bureau as well as crush data from USDA’s Fats and Oils report will be available to adjust both old-crop exports and crushing accordingly. USDA’s Sept. 30 quarterly grain stocks report will inform on the latest supply situation.

With this updated information, the market will be able to settle on 2015/16’s carryout, which has been relatively volatile to the downside over the past few months. This will set the starting point for the 2016/17 soybean balance sheet.

But with more than a year to go until the final picture of 2016/17 U.S. soybeans emerges, what we are talking about today may be something entirely different from what we are talking about a year from now.

  • Graphic- USDA carryout estimates for U.S. soybean crush and exports
  • Graphic- USDA carryout estimates for U.S. soybean ending stocks
  • Graphic- U.S. Soybean Yield, August to Final USDA Estimate
  • Graphic- U.S. soybean supply scenarios, 2016/17

Soybeans extend rally on export figures, USDA reports eyed (RT)

  • Soybeans set for weekly gains of almost 1.5 pct
  • USDA expected to raise forecasts for soybeans and corn
  • Wheat little changed for the week

U.S. soybeans rose on Friday as strong export demand pushed the oilseed towards a weekly gain of nearly 1.5 percent.

Corn was unchanged, set to finish the week down about 1 percent. Wheat was set to close the week nearly flat.

The most active soybean futures on the Chicago Board Of Trade Sv1 rose 0.36 percent to $9.87-1/2 a bushel after closing up 0.18 percent on Thursday.

Soybeans have posted gains in four of the last five sessions, pushing the oilseed up nearly 1.5 percent for the week and recouping some of the nearly 3 percent loss from last week.

Soybeans continue to rally on the recent strong demand for U.S. exports, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reporting overseas sales totalling more than 3 million tonnes in the week to Aug. 4, topping analysts’ expectations.

While soybeans continues to draw support from the exports, market direction will depend on the outcome of the USDA supply and demand report later in the session, analysts said.

“China keeps on taking U.S. soybeans, that is why prices are moving upwards,” said Phin Ziebell, an agribusiness economist at National Australia Bank.

Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect the government to raise its soybean yield estimates, but increased export demand for soybeans could prompt the USDA to trim its ending stocks forecasts.

The most active corn futures Cv1 was unchanged at $3.31-3/4 a bushel after closing down 0.4 percent on Thursday.

Corn is down nearly 1 percent for the week, the second consecutive weekly fall after losing more than 2 percent last week.

The USDA is expected to raise its estimate for corn yields.

The most active wheat futures Wv1 was unchanged at $4.16-1/4 a bushel after closing down 1.3 percent on Thursday.

Wheat is little changed for the week after posting gains of more than 2 percent last week.

USDA reported weekly export sales of U.S. wheat above 600,000 tonnes, a five-week high that topped trade expectations.

Wheat traders will be watching on Friday for revisions to the USDA’s world outlook in light of poor harvests in western Europe and bumper crops in the Black Sea region.

U.S. corn ratings seen lower on dry conditions; soy steady (RT)

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will likely show decreased condition ratings for the U.S. corn crop, mostly due to seasonal factors and as some portions of the Midwestern growing region were suffering from dry conditions, a Reuters poll of 10 analysts showed on Monday.

Soybean crop ratings, on average, were expected to be unchanged while the spring wheat harvest likely advanced at a normal rate, the analysts said.

USDA in its weekly crop progress and conditions report due at 3 p.m. CDT (2000 GMT) is expected to estimate corn ratings at 75 percent good to excellent, down one percentage point from a week ago, according to analysts’ average estimates. US/CORUS/SOY

Soybean ratings were seen at 72 percent good to excellent, steady after posting a one-percentage-point rise in the previous week.

Crop conditions for corn typically decline at this time of year as the earliest-planted fields reach maturity. Condition ratings for both corn and soybeans are historically high, and it was rare for conditions to improve during some of the hottest days of the summer, the analysts said.

The spring wheat harvest was estimated at 28 percent complete, up from 10 percent last week. The harvest also was 28 percent finished during the same week in 2015. US/WHE

All figures below in percent:

Category Average Range Prior week
Corn condition * 75 74-76 76
Soybean condition * 72 70-73 72
Spring wheat harvest 28 21-37 10
* Good/excellent

GRAINS-Soybeans dip after rally, adverse weather forecast supports prices

  • Soybeans ease after climbing to highest in more than a week
  • Forecasts of hot, dry weather across Midwest underpin prices

Adds comment, detail

By Naveen Thukral

Chicago soybeans edged lower on Wednesday as the market took a breather after last session’s strong gains that were driven by forecasts of crop-damaging hot and dry weather across the U.S. Midwest.

Corn was little changed following a 1.5-percent rally on Tuesday, supported by a U.S. Department of Agriculture report showing tighter supplies of the feed grain.

The Chicago Board of Trade most-active soybean contract Sv1 slid 0.3 percent to $10.84 a bushel by 0220 GMT, after rallying over 3 percent in the last session. The market earlier hit its highest since July 5 at $10.97 a bushel.

Corn futures Cv1 gained 0.1 percent to $3.60-1/2 a bushel and wheat Wv1 gave up 0.1 percent to $4.38-1/4 a bushel.

“The market’s next concern is the forecast of adverse weather in the coming weeks when soybeans will in the pod-setting stage,” said Kaname Gokon at brokerage Okato Shoji in Tokyo. “Hot and dry weather will potentially reduce yields.”

Soybeans are drawing support amid worries about stressful crop conditions as forecasters said above-normal temperatures and near-normal to below-normal rainfall may spread across most of the U.S crop belt next week.

U.S. corn supplies will tighten more than expected in the coming months due to rising exports, but a bumper harvest will quickly re-stock grain bins, the USDA said on Tuesday.

The agency pegged 2015/16 U.S. corn stocks at 1.701 billion bushels, down 7 million bushels from its June estimate.

It predicted a big domestic soybean harvest would help offset rising overseas demand for U.S. supplies of the oilseed.

The USDA is likely to boost the already massive yield forecast in the coming months, according to historical data that show estimates of big crops tend to grow even larger as harvest time nears.

There is support for wheat with the outlook of lower production in France.

France’s farm ministry expects the country’s soft wheat production to shrink by almost 10 percent this year after heavy rain and limited sunshine hurt crops in the European Union’s biggest grain grower.

In its first estimate of 2016 soft wheat production on Tuesday, the ministry forecast a crop of 36.95 million tonnes, down 9.7 percent from 2015’s record volume of 40.9 million tonnes.

Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT soybean, corn and wheat futures contracts on Tuesday. Traders’ estimates of net fund buying in soybeans ranged from 8,000 to 10,000 contracts and in corn from 3,000 to 6,000 contracts.

Corn extends losses into fifth session

  • Corn falls, lingers near lowest since October, 2014
  • Wheat falls 1 percent, soybeans edge lower
  • USDA to report latest crop condition report on Wednesday

By Colin Packham

U.S corn fell for a fifth consecutive session on Wednesday as favourable weather forecasts added to expectations of bumper supplies.

Wheat fell 1 percent, while soybeans fell nearly 0.5 percent.

The most actively traded corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade CZ6 fell 0.35 percent to $3.56-3/4 a bushel after closing down 2.5 percent in the previous session when prices hit a contract low.

Front-month corn futures Cv1 were little changed, having closed down more than 6 percent on Tuesday when prices fell to a low of $3.33-3/4 a bushel – the lowest since October, 2014.

Analysts said expectations of ample global supplies continue to weigh on prices.

“The reality is there are favourable conditions,” said Phin Ziebell, agribusiness economist, National Australia Bank. “We occasionally get some supply concerns but none of them seem to come through to impacting production.”

The outlook for more rain in key growing areas of the U.S. Midwest during the next two weeks outweighed concerns about some dry conditions in about 15 to 20 percent of the Midwest, including southeast Iowa and western Illinois.

Front-month wheat futures Wv1 fell 1.2 percent to $4.15-1/4 a bushel, having closed down 2.5 percent on Tuesday.

Front-month soybean futures Sv1 eased 0.54 percent to $11.11 a bushel, having closed down 1.8 percent on Tuesday.

Soybeans are under pressure amid signs of weak demand for U.S. supplies.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Tuesday morning said export inspections of soybeans totalled just 191,426 tonnes in the latest week, down from 295,816 a week ago and below the low end of analysts’ forecasts.

Analysts said the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s latest weekly update on crop conditions, which will be released at 3 p.m. CDT (2000 GMT), will likely drive the next price trigger.

Analysts are expecting the report to show that good-to-excellent conditions for both corn and soybeans fell 1 percentage point.

Wheat faces fourth week of decline, lingers near 6-year low

  • Wheat down 10 pct in 4 weeks of decline on supply pressure
  • Corn has lost 15 pct in 2 weeks, USDA boosts planting outlook

Adds details, quotes

By Naveen Thukral

U.S. wheat lost more ground on Friday with the market set for a fourth week of decline, as a U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report that pegged plantings above expectations dragged on prices.

Corn, which has lost around 15 percent in two weeks of losses, is expected to decline further as excess wheat supply takes its market share in the animal feed market.

Chicago Board Of Trade most-active wheat contract Wv1 is down nearly 5 percent this week. In the previous session, prices hit a low of $4.36 a bushel, the weakest since June 2010.

Corn Cv1, which plumbed an 11-week low of $3.65-1/4 a bushel on Thursday, has given up more than 3 percent this week.

“Corn had rallied due to spillover from gains in the soybean market but the reality is that there is too much corn around and now we have increase in U.S. acreage,” said Phin Ziebel, agribusiness economist at National Australia Bank in Melbourne.

“The supply and demand situation is bearish for grains and more so for corn as feed wheat is going to eat into its market share.”

The USDA, in an acreage report, said domestic all-wheat plantings totaled 50.816 million acres, topping analysts’ forecasts for 49.869 million and the agency’s March estimate of 49.559 million.

Corn seedings were 94.148 million acres, above the high end of analysts’ estimates. On an average, they had expected acreage to fall from the government’s March forecast of 93.601 million.

The USDA, in a separate report, said corn inventories as of June 1 were the biggest since 1988 while soybean stocks for that period were the third biggest ever.

Soybean futures Sv1 are up nearly 7 percent this week, the biggest weekly gain since October 2014.

The acreage report showed farmers planted a record 83.688 million soybean acres, above the government’s March forecast of 82.236 million but below analysts’ estimates for 83.834 million.

Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT corn contracts on Thursday and net buyers of soybean futures.

Trader estimates of fund selling in corn ranged from 15,000 to 25,000 contracts, and estimates of fund buying in soybeans ranged from 14,000 to 25,000 contracts. Estimates of fund buying in wheat ranged from zero to 5,000 contracts.