GRAINS-Exports support soy; corn, wheat rise on short-covering (RT)

U.S. soybean futures rose to their highest in nearly four weeks on Wednesday on strong demand from China, the world’s top buyer of the oilseed, traders said.

Corn and wheat futures posted mild gains on a round of short-covering. It was corn’s fourth positive close in a row.

“We had some short-covering, got a little bit of a technical bounce,” said Karl Setzer, market analyst at MaxYield Cooperative. “A lot of little things added up.”

A global glut of wheat and expectations for a record corn harvest in the United States quelled buying in the grains. The upcoming U.S. soybean harvest also has been forecast as the biggest on record, but a recent spate of export activity underpinned the market.

The U.S. Agriculture Department said on Wednesday morning that private exporters reported the sale of 381,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for delivery during the 2016/17 marketing year.

The USDA also said that exporters reported the sale of 129,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown destinations, correcting an Aug. 4 announcement that said corn was the commodity sold in the deal.

“Soybeans are providing at least a little lift to the grain market today, with concerns over a big crop muted by strong demand,” Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst at Farm Futures, said in a note.

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures for November delivery SX6 were up 8-3/4 cents at $10.16 a bushel. Prices peaked at $10.17-1/4 a bushel, the highest since July 21.

“There is market talk that U.S. soybean shipments to China in August will reach a hefty 1.8 million tonnes, which along with big shipments from Argentina and Brazil, could bring shipments to China in August to a massive 5 million tonnes,” a European trader said. “China’s economic slowdown is not braking soybean imports.”

Spillover strength from a 1.7 percent gain in soyoil futures BOv1, which have rallied to a four-month high on the back of surging palm oil prices, lent additional support to soybeans. Soyoil futures have risen for six straight sessions.

CBOT September soft red winter wheat WU6 was up 2-1/2 cents at $4.26 a bushel. Higher-protein K.C. hard red winter wheat KWv1 and MGEX spring wheat 1MWEc1 posted bigger increases.

CBOT December corn futures CZ6 were 2-1/2 cents higher at $3.39-3/4 a bushel. Corn hit its highest since Aug. 1 and closed just below its session peak of $3.40 a bushel.

Ukraine sees high 2016 grain harvest, record exports (RT)

Ukraine’s 2016 grain harvest is likely to be around 63 million tonnes – 3 million more than last year, agriculture ministry official Leonid Sukhomlin said at a briefing on Wednesday.

He said better than expected weather this spring and summer had increased the yield of wheat and other grains.

Sukhomlin said that the wheat harvest could total 25.5 million tonnes in clean weight, but cautioned that the forecast might not be reliable.

“Against a background of changing rules and high taxes, some farmers prefer to hide the real volume of their output and the wheat harvest could even be 27 million tonnes,” he told Reuters.

Ukraine, one of the three top global grain exporters, harvested 60 million tonnes of grain, including 26.5 million tonnes of wheat, in 2015. Grain exports in the 2015/16 season, which runs from July to June, reached 39.4 million tonnes.

Sukhomlin also said that the harvest of maize, another top Ukrainian commodity, could reach 26 million tonnes this year, up from 23.2 million tonnes in 2015.

Ukraine’s UZA grain export union sees total grains production at 63.5 million tonnes, while exports could reach an all-time high of 41 million tonnes, UZA director Volodymyr Klimenko said at the same briefing.

Sukhomlin said this season’s exports could include 17 million tonnes of wheat. Ukraine exported 16.9 million tonnes of wheat in 2015/16.

Ukraine has exported 4.88 million tonnes of grain so far this season compared with 4.72 million a year earlier, according to ministry data.

The volume includes 2.4 million tonnes of wheat, 1.9 million tonnes of barley, 444,000 tonnes of maize and some tonnage of other grains.

WINTER SOWING

Sukhomlin said Ukrainian farmers were likely to increase the area sown for winter grains for 2017 to 7.3 million hectares from 7 million last year thanks to better weather.

Poor weather last autumn forced farmers to reduce the area under winter grains. The area under winter wheat could be up to 6.5 million hectares for the 2016/17 season, he said.

“This year the weather is much better and the final sown area will depend on it,” he said.

Ukraine is located in a risky planting zone and its winter wheat harvest is highly dependent on the moisture content in soil during the autumn sowing, air temperatures in winter and favorable weather in spring.

High productive winter wheat accounts for around 95 percent of Ukraine’s total wheat output.

Soybeans, corn recover from losses after forecasts for record harvests (RT)

  • USDA sees record corn, soy harvests and yields
  • Chinese soy demand seen supporting price recovery

Adds comment, updates prices

U.S. soybean futures climbed more than 1 percent on Monday, recovering from losses in the previous session after the U.S. Department of Agriculture projected a record harvest, with demand from top market China seen staying strong.

Corn and wheat tracked the gains in soybeans, helping corn bounce back after falling to its weakest since 2014.

In its monthly outlook, the USDA on Friday pegged the corn crop at 15.153 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 175.1 bushels per acre, while the soybean harvest was seen at 4.060 billion bushels, with yields expected to average 48.9 bushels per acre. Both topped the high end of market expectations.

Good weather for crop development during July across broad swaths of the U.S. Midwest, the key growing area for corn and soybeans, allowed crops to mature with relatively little stress.

While global soybean supply is high, particularly in the United States, “demand from China is looking pretty favourable,” said Phin Ziebell, agribusiness economist at National Australia Bank.

“Having said that, supply looks very good. It’d be hard to see any upside for prices in the medium term,” he said.

The most-traded soybeans contract on the Chicago Board of Trade Sv1 rose 1.3 percent to $9.94-3/4 per bushel by 0244 GMT. It fell as much as 2.2 percent to $9.62-1/2 on Friday.

Chicago corn Cv1 was up 0.8 percent at $3.35-3/4 a bushel. The contract touched $3.22-1/2 on Friday, its lowest since October 2014.

Corn recovered to close firmer on Friday, which some analysts attribute to firm demand for the grain as animal feed going forward.

“Global feed demand is growing strongly, so perhaps the market is realising that the scale of supply required for ‘comfort’ will also need to be higher,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Tobin Gorey said in a note.

Chicago wheat Wv1 climbed 0.7 percent to $4.251/2 per bushel.

ABN forecasts seasonal grain rally, but supplies remain heavy (am)

16:10 UK, 11th Aug 2016, by Agrimoney.com

Grain prices will rally from their seasonal summer lows, but the size of global supplies will leave markets trading sideways by the end of the year, ABN Amro said.

The bank maintained its price forecasts, despite the recent sell-off, with a rally expected by the end of the summer period.

But there is “still more than enough” supply around, ABN said.

Summer sell-off

Grain markets saw a broad sell-off from their June peak leaving wheat, corn, and soybean futures in Chicago all down 20%.

“Traders evidently have little faith in a strong price recovery in the near future and there was widespread profit-taking before the start of the holiday period,” said ABN.

The June grain market rally was driven by global weather worries, including potential dryness in the US Midwest and heavy rain in Europe.

“Now that the impact of these weather events appears to have been limited, prices are starting to go down again,” ABN said.

And ABN said that “unrest” in the market caused by La Nina threats was easing, as crops are now sufficiently advanced that any impact from an event “will not be too severe”.

Wheat to rally, up to a point

ABN forecast Chicago wheat prices to hit $5.00 a bushel by the end of the year. December Chicago wheat futures are currently trading at $4.37 a bushel.

But the bank noted the continued global wheat surplus, with production forecast to once again outstrip demand this year.

“After the summer period, prices are expected to pick up again due to the seasonal effect, but will then settle into a sideways trend,” ABN said.

Ample corn stocks

Corn futures were forecast to rise to $4.15 a bushel, compared to December futures currently trading at $3.31 a bushel.

“Corn, like wheat, is amply available,” ABN said.

“As noted, previous fears that weather damage might dampen output in the upcoming season proved unfounded so that the crop forecasts have been revised up.”

ABN said that the expected output will exceed consumption so that, after a brief revival at the end of the summer period, corn prices are also expected to move sideways in the rest of 2016.

Good soybean supplies

Soybean futures were forecast for modest gains, finishing the year at $10.50 a bushel. The January contract is currently trading at $9.84 a bushel.

But soybeans are in a stronger position that other grains, as global demand remains strong.

“Soybean production is set to break all records in the coming season,” ABN said, noting that the USDA forecast for global production is up some 4% year on year, at 325m tonnes.

“This increase, however, is insufficient to meet the growing demand,” ABN said, with consumption seen at a record 328m tonnes, driven by “persistently high Chinese demand”.

Russian wheat prices up on concerns over Western Europe crop (RT)

Russian wheat export prices rose last week on concerns over the weather-hit harvest in the Western Europe, Russia’s main rival to supply North Africa and the Middle East, analysts said on Monday.

Russia’s Agriculture Ministry expects the country to harvest the largest grain crop in its post-Soviet history of up to 110 million tonnes, of which 57.9 million tonnes have already been threshed.

Black Sea prices for Russian wheat with 12.5-percent protein content and supply in August were $166 a tonne on a free-on-board (FOB) basis at the end of last week, up $2 from a week earlier, Russian agricultural consultancy IKAR said in a note. IKARMENU

SovEcon, another Moscow-based consultancy, quoted FOB wheat prices in the Black Sea area at $167 per tonne, up $2.5 from a week earlier.

The country exported 2.19 million tonnes of grains, including 1.68 million tonnes of wheat and 465,000 tonnes of barley, between July 1 and August 3, the agriculture ministry said. The pace of grain exports was down 4.4 percent, year on year.

Grain exports will rise significantly in August from July, IKAR said. Russia was the world’s second-largest wheat exporter after the European Union in the 2015/16 marketing season, which ended on June 30.

SovEcon plans to release its crop forecast update on Aug. 11. A month ago, it expected Russia’s 2016 grain harvest at 109 million tonnes, including 66.1 million tonnes of wheat.

The Stavropol region, one of Russia’s main grain producing southern regions, has finished harvesting with a record grain crop of 9.2 million tonnes before drying and cleaning, up 1 million tonnes from a year ago.

Domestic prices for third-class wheat rose last week for the first time in the 2016/17 marketing season, which started on July 1, on higher demand in export-focused regions.

Domestic prices added 25 roubles from the week earlier and reached 9,575 roubles ($147) a tonne in the European part of Russia on an ex-works basis, according to SovEcon. Ex-works supply does not include delivery costs. GRAIN/RU

SovEcon also said FOB Black Sea export prices for sunflower oil were down on the back of weak global prices and good harvest prospects in Ukraine and Russia.

SovEcon has upgraded its forecast for Russia’s 2016 sunseed crop to a historically record level of 10.1 million tonnes compared with the previously expected 9.3 million tonnes.

 

France sees wheat yields at 30-year low on weather toll (RT)

  • Farm ministry revises down soft wheat crop to 29.1 mln T
  • Sees yield plunging to 5.57 t/ha after poor crop weather
  • Cuts barley, rapeseed estimates, sees stable maize crop
  • FranceAgriMer points to contrasting wheat quality

By Gus Trompiz

France’s farm ministry cut its yield estimate for this year’s soft wheat harvest to a 30-year low on Friday, confirming market concerns that adverse spring weather has ravaged crops in the European Union’s biggest grain grower.

The ministry lowered its forecast of the average soft wheat yield to 5.57 tonnes per hectare (t/ha), from 7.07 t/ha last month. This would be 30 percent below last year’s level and the weakest yield since 1986 when drought hit the harvest, it said.

The plunge in yields led the ministry to reduce its soft wheat production estimate to 29.1 million tonnes from 36.95 million forecast last month, now down 29 percent on last year’s record 40.9 million tonnes and the lowest level since 2003.

This was within the range of current market estimates putting the crop between 28 and 30 million tonnes.

“Winter crops will see a historic drop in production this year due to the drop in yields,” the ministry said in a crop report. “The soft wheat harvest has been particularly impacted by the poor weather conditions.”

Like other observers, it pointed to a combination of torrential rain, unusually low sunshine and widespread plant disease that hurt crops during critical flowering and grain-filling stages.

The Ile-de-France region around Paris was expected to see yields fall 40 percent below the average of the previous five years. The Hauts-de-France region in the far north would see a 38 percent drop and Centre-Val-de-Loire a 31 percent decline, the ministry estimated.

Weekly crop data from farm agency FranceAgriMer on Friday showed another decline in the condition of soft wheat crops last week as harvesting passed the midway point.

In a separate harvest update, FranceAgriMer also pointed to unusually contrasting quality readings, a crucial factor for export markets, which would require careful sorting of grain.

It stressed erratic and generally low specific weights, one measure of wheat quality, without giving figures, while protein content was relatively high, with some northerly zones seeing levels above 12 percent.

Hagberg falling numbers, another quality measure of proved a headache for France after a rain-soaked harvest two years ago, were satisfactory so far, it said.

The ministry also cut its harvest outlook for barley, putting production at 10.2 million tonnes, down from 11.7 million estimated last month and 21 percent below 2015 output.

It also lowered its estimate of the rapeseed harvest to 4.5 million tonnes, from 4.8 million a month ago, now 15 percent below last year’s crop.

FranceAgriMer, which gave the same soft wheat production figure as the farm ministry, put the rapeseed crop slightly higher at 4.7 million tonnes.

However, conditions for maize and sunflower crops that are harvested later in the year were more favourable for now, the ministry said.

In its first estimate for this year’s grain maize harvest, it projected production at 13.5 million tonnes, stable compared with last year’s crop as an expected recovery in yields after last year’s drought-affected harvest offset a smaller area.

Corn hits 7-year low, despite good export demand (Ag)

19:49 GMT, Thursday, 4th Aug 2016, by William Clarke

Soybean futures kept their heads above water, just about, thanks to good US exports, but heavy world supplies weighed on corn futures, which seven-year lows, under pressure from the heavy US crop prospects.

The US Department of Agriculture announced the sale of 252,000 tonnes of soybeans to China, and 129,000 tonnes of corn to unknown destinations.

“Another lovely round of daily reporting,” said Kim Rugel at Benson Quinn Commodities, noting “thoughts of strong export demand due to multi-year low prices offering support”.

Exports beat expectations

US soybean export sales came in at 542,200 tonnes for the current marketing year, compared to analyst forecasts of 300,000 to 600,000 tonnes.

This brings in total soybean commitments for 2015-16 at 107.3% of the USDA’s forecast.

And sales for the new marketing year were toward the top end of expectations, at 1.13m tonnes, with analyst expectations ranging between 800,000 and 1.20m tonnes.

This was the biggest new crop sale so far this year.

New crop soybean product sales also beat expectations, with 19,000 tonnes of soyoil, and 140,500 tonnes of soymeal, booked for export.

Range bound trade

But despite the good export demand, soybean markets are struggling to rally, with the risk of rising soybean yields.

Richard Feltes, at RJ O’Brien, asked “are markets settling into a range trade ahead of crop report or merely taking a breather before going lower?”

“With tight cash markets, positive Aug soybean seasonal and the torrid pace of soybean export sales-we lean toward more range trade,” Mr Feltes.

But he warned that “confirmation of another record high US soy yield would certainly inflict more pain on the remaining soybean managed fund longs”.

November soybean futures finished unchanged on the day, at 9.56 ѕ a bushel.

Strong export sales

“Corn export sales were good this week,” said Joe Lardy, at CHS Hedging.

2015-16 sales came in at 331,1000 tonnes, toward the low end of expectations, but new crop corn sales were a hefty 896,300 tonnes, ahead of analyst expectations of 500,000 to 700,000 tonnes.

This is the biggest new crop sale of so far this year.

Beneficial rain

But the market remains under heavy pressure, from US crop prospects.

“The market is most focused on rainfall in the eastern Corn Belt,” said Darrell Holaday, at Country Futures.

“Rain in the next 2-4 days would be beneficial to a few dry areas in those states and would really finish much of the state that is in very good condition,” Mr Holaday said.

“There is plenty of rain in the forecast for the Plains and the central and western Midwest,” he added.

Good corn prospects

“Prospects in Midwest corn are favourable, a result of wet summer weather,” said forecaster Gail Martell, also noting the good condition of corn, as revealed in the latest set of USDA crop ratings.

“Corn pollination has reached 91% complete,” Ms Martell said. “This points to a very favourable crop in the making.”

“The corn yield outlook was boosted by recurring strong showers in July,” she noted, with “85% of the Midwest receiving above average rainfall”.

December corn futures finished down 1.3%, at $3.31 a bushel, the lowest finish for the second-month contract since 2009.

Wheat sales miss expectations

Wheat futures fell, under pressure from heavy world supplies and some disappointing US exports sales.

Wheat export sales came in below expectations, at 326,500 tonnes, where analysts projected sales of 350,000-650,000 tonnes.

September Chicago wheat futures finished down 1.7%, at $4.03 ј a bushel.

Brazilian real rallies…

Arabica and sugar futures rallied late in the session, thanks to a rally in currency of Brazil, the top exporter of both commodities.

The Brazilian real was up 0.9% against the greenback in afternoon trading, at 3.3065 to a dollar.

Aside from two sessions in late June, this is the strongest the real has been since July 2015.

The strength in the real was driven by the news that the Bank of England cut its interest rates, for the first time in seven years, and would extend quantitative easing.

…lending support to arabica and sugar

The prospect of a wave of looser monetary policy across the developed world weighed on bond yields there.

The move sent speculators flooding into higher-yield environments such as Brazil.

The strength in the real was supportive for coffee and sugar futures, as it reduces real-denominated returns for Brazilian growers, discouraging production and exports.

September arabica KCc1 settled up 1.2%, at 142.10 cents a pound.

October raw sugar futures settled up 3.5%, at 19.7 cents a pound.

Technical buying

Cotton futures surged on technical buying, helped by strong US export sales.

The USDA announced net cotton sales of 226,700 bales of cotton for the 2016-2017 marketing year.

December cotton futures broke out of their previous trading range, triggering fund buying.

The December contract settled up 2.1%, at 75.82 cents a pound, its highest level since June 2014.

Soybeans rise for a second session on demand for U.S. supplies

  • Soybean rally capped by favourable weather outlook
  • Corn pressured by bumper supply forecasts
  • Wheat firms for second straight session

By Colin Packham

U.S. soybeans rose for a second session on Thursday, drawing support from international demand for U.S. supplies, though favourable weather forecasts for key producing regions capped the rally.

Corn was little changed, under pressure from expectations of silo-bursting supplies, while wheat rose for a second session.

The most active soybean futures on the Chicago Board Of Trade Sv1 rose 0.31 percent to $9.58-1/2 a bushel, having firmed 0.3 percent on Wednesday.

“The market will be tallying the net impact of strong U.S. export demand against a potential bumper U.S. harvest,” said Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy, Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Exporters on Wednesday reported sales of 441,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery in the 2016/17 marketing year, which begins on Sept. 1, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.

There were 256,000 tonnes of soybeans sold to reportedly unknown destinations with 66,000 tonnes for delivery in the 2015/16 marketing year and 190,200 tonnes for delivery in 2016/17, according to the USDA.

It was the sixth consecutive business day on which the agency confirmed soybean sales, with volumes to China and unknown destinations totalling more than 2 million tonnes over that period.

While demand appears strong for U.S. crops, with favourable weather expected across the Midwest, forecasters are increasingly confident of bumper U.S. supplies.

The most active corn futures Cv1 rose 0.1 percent to $3.35-1/4 a bushel, having gained 0.3 percent in the previous session.

The most active wheat futures Wv1 rose 0.3 percent to $4.11-1/2 a bushel, having closed up 2.2 percent on Wednesday.

Corn is under pressure from the weather outlook, but also drew support from news the Brazilian government is working to adjust its regulations on imports of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) to allow more corn imports from the United States.

Rabobank sees wheat, corn futures in ‘race to the bottom’

Rabobank slashed its outlook for feed grain prices, citing a “global feed grain glut”.

Chicago feet wheat and corn are in a “race-to-the-bottom”, thanks to heavy supplies and big harvests.

Rabobank forecast corn and wheat price well below the current forward curve.

Exceptional US harvest

Rabobank lowered its forecast for Chicago wheat prices, “record projected global feed supplies, ensuring a particularly competitive export environment”.

“Wheat prices fell significantly through late June, as exceptional US harvest prospects and heightened confidence in the US corn crop sparked a price race-to-the-bottom across feed grain cash markets,” Rabobank said.

“Both record US yields and near-record ending stocks… plus an impending EU feed-quality crop will contribute to a 2016-17 global feed grain glut,” said the bank.

“Following the northern hemisphere harvest, wheat is expected to follow the corn market more closely, as both grains compete for demand.”

Undershooting the curve

And Rabobank warned that the USDA’s latest forecast for Chinese 2016-17 wheat feeding, at 15m tonnes “is somewhat optimistic in our opinion”.

“Government intentions to auction domestic corn stocks, having also removed the price support mechanism, should result in high availability of competitively priced Chinese feed corn, which could force a further 2m to 3m tonnes of wheat onto the global balance sheet,” the bank said.

Rabobank forecast Chicago wheat prices averaging $4.00 a bushel in the July to September period, and $4.30 a bushel in the October to November period.

In comparison, September Chicago wheat futures are currently trading at $4.18 a bushel, with December Chicago wheat futures are currently trading at $4.45 a bushel.

Heavy Russian crop

Rabobank forecast European wheat production at 154m tonnes, compared to the USDA forecast of 156.5m tonnes.

But Russian production was seen at a record 65.6m tonnes, 600,000 tonnes ahead of the USDA number.

“With crops in good condition, demand for high-quality grain is likely to shift across to the Black Sea, driving Russian exports to 27.1m tonnes,” Rabobank said.

Corn in ‘very good shape’

And the size of the US corn crop is weighing on price prospects for grains as well, Rabobank said.

“Traveling through the US over the course of the last few weeks, we have seen a lot of corn planted, and most of it is in very good shape,” Rabobank said.

“US crops are currently experiencing severe heat, but forecasts still hold good rains and a cooler outlook,” Raboank said.

“We therefore still predict yields to exceed those currently forecast by the USDA.”

Stocks pile up

The size of the harvest means that US stocks are set to build, despite “very strong expected exports, potentially hitting a 30-year high of 2.3bn bushels.

Rabobank saw corn futures in Chicago averaging just $3.00 a tonne for the rest of the year.

Corn futures for September are currently trading at about $3.36 a bushel, with the December contract at $3.43 a bushel.

France to support grain farmers after crops hit by weather

  • Fall in grain output and low prices hit growers’ revenue
  • Farm minister aims to help cash flow ahead of next harvest
  • Growers see wheat crop plunge over 25 pct to some 30 mln T

Recasts to lead with government plan

By Sybille de La Hamaide

France will help grain farmers cope with an expected plunge in revenue after torrential rain and a lack of sunshine in late spring hit the country’s cereal crops.

First results of the still ongoing harvest point to a crop of soft wheat, the most cultivated cereal in France, at some 30 million tonnes this year, growers group Orama said on Wednesday.

This would be down more than 25 percent on last year’s record for European Union’s largest producer.

The fall in production, which also affects grains such as barley and rapeseed, comes at a time of low prices due to ample global supplies, with plentiful wheat crops expected in top producers such as the United States and Russia.

Agriculture Minister Stephane Le Foll presented new measures to help grain farmers at a cabinet meeting, including tax rebates or deferrals as well as a speeding up in the repayment of value added tax (VAT), minutes of the meeting showed.

Pointing to adverse weather conditions in the spring that damaged crops and fuelled plant disease, he also extended existing aid such as public loan guarantees and the possibility of postponing loan repayments.

“These are initial emergency measures for farmers’ cash flow so that they can start their crops for next year,” a farm ministry official said.

Total costs were still unknown because so were the scope of the damage and the number of farms which would claim, she said.

“The situation we are experiencing is extremely serious and totally unprecedented,” Orama President Philippe Pinta told reporters ahead of the government plan. “The figures (for soft wheat) that we are getting are so bad it’s hard to imagine.”

Separately, in response to several farm unions’ demands, Le Foll is envisaging a change in France’s application of the EU Common Agriculture Policy as part of a review due by July 31.

Paris could slow down the implementation of extra aid for small farms, which lead to a transfer of EU subsidies from large grain farms to smaller livestock ones, the official said.

Oilseed crops were also hit by adverse weather conditions although to a lesser extent, Orama said. First results pointed to a French rapeseed yield between 2.8 and 3 tonnes per hectare compared to a ministry estimate of 3.5 t/ha in 2015.

($1 = 0.9088 euros)